53319 | 5 April 2026 | 10:07
The Institute for Strategies and Analyses (ISA) has published its political analysis of events in Bulgaria, Europe, and the world in March 2026 under the title "Progressive Bulgaria" Changes Political Climate Ahead of the April 19 Vote.
President Yotova - in the Eye of the Political Storm. Coalition of Radev Bears Brunt of Anger. GERB - Borisov Counts on Achievements. CC-DB - Tension High. "Revival" Calls for Restart of State. DPS - Actions of the Ministry of Interior Strengthen Electorate. BSP - Zarkov Attempts to Revive
Party.
We offer a summary of the MAIN CONCLUSIONS AND FORECASTS:
Before the early parliamentary elections in Bulgaria, the situation is once again in crisis, but in an unexpected way - tension was expected due to the adoption of the euro, but strong tremors occur due to the escalating war between the US/Israel with Iran in the Middle East.
The eighth parliamentary elections in the last 5 years also have other characteristic features. The emergence of "Progressive Bulgaria" by Rumen Radev is changing the political climate, as the visible part of this gradual transformation is both the heightened clashes at various levels and vectors, and the increased expectations for a resolution of the political crisis.
In recent years, parliamentary elections in our country have not been a competition, but rather a battle/war. This applies even more strongly to the upcoming elections.
In the month before April 19, everything is already about elections - from the consequences of the war in the Middle East, to the ongoing aftermath of "Petrohan", to the police actions against vote buying and the controversy surrounding Graf Ignatiev.
Pre-election efforts are not confined to just lists, programs, claims, and messages. They are at all levels, including compromising materials, below the belt hits, insinuations and talking points, demonizing the opponent, whether there are grounds for it or not.
The April 19th elections may be the first whose results will be challenged. The actions of the Ministry of Interior in Kardzhali and in mixed districts may backfire against their authors, as they mobilize the votes of MRF supporters. For the first time, the legality of the acting Prime Minister is being questioned by leading participants such as GERB and MRF.
The protests in December 2025 and the entry onto the field of "Progressive Bulgaria" generate interest, hence the voter turnout. At the same time, a number of scandals seem to put a ceiling on civic engagement.
The ongoing political crisis has finally revealed that, left to the hard cores and the bought votes, elections lead to new crises and a dead end. The initially predicted one million more voters may decrease to 600,000-500,000, but there will still be growth and this is unlikely to change by the end of the campaign, unless there is a force majeure.
"Progressive Bulgaria" is primarily damaged by political forces that could have been its potential partners in various thematic fields. Most voters from "Revival" "escaped" to Radev, and the BSP remains existentially threatened by PB, despite the change of its chairman.
The goals of PB and the CC-DB coalition overlap in terms of changes in the judiciary - in the Supreme Court of Cassation and the Prosecutor's Office. But CC-DB have lost the momentum given to them by the protests and are now competing with MRF for third place, rather than GERB for first, as was the trend in December.
GERB can rely on its strong core. What the party is currently losing, is the coveted first place.
MRF is the only party that has not lost voters since Radev's appearance.
There is no wave towards PB, but there is a jump. PB is a party of anger, but it is anger controlled by a politician who has accumulated institutional knowledge and experience. This is different from the radicalism of "Revivla", the self-activity of TISP, or the emotional demands for change in the CC.
"Progressive Bulgaria" instills the message that it pursues long-term goals and this explains the jump. But there is fear of a radical geopolitical turn, despite the statements by Radev that Bulgaria must solidify its membership in the EU and NATO. Another paradox has arisen - the more PB emphasizes Bulgaria's Euro-Atlantic membership, the more disappointed those who support a pro-Russian line and the left-wing have become, as they expected PB to be their party.
For now, PB's first place seems secure, but the lack of a wave leaves it under the majority, which guarantees it a single-party rule or (another option) a minority government, for which the missing votes would be few. If it wants to create a sustainable government, PB needs to have a coalition partner/partners. In this context, the sharp exchange of remarks between Rumen Radev and Asen Vasilev seems rather strange.
The intrigue grows about whether GERB and MRF will have more than 80 Members of Parliament, which will block the creation of a two-thirds majority necessary for changes (personnel) in the judicial authority.
With the development of the campaign and simultaneously with the consolidation of Radev's leadership, GERB leader Boyko Borisov goes on the offensive. The campaign heat is yet to rise.
Radev relied on a professional and modern campaign, rather than the traditional "man of the people" agitation.
The Progressive Bulgaria announced as its immediate goal the dismantling of the oligarchic model, but it itself appears to be a party of capital. Oligarchy and capital are not identical, but the call for transparency must be backed up with their own example.
The short-term goal of PB is to become the core of a union of parties that will form a two-thirds majority, with GERB-Borisov and MRF-Peevski excluded from it.
However, if the mentioned opposing parties win more than 80 seats and the plan is blocked, we expect acceleration and even greater efforts along the anti-corruption line and potential new elections.
Radev is determined to take radical measures to turn PB into a mass party capable of independently winning a majority and having parties - allies and satellites, with whom it could undertake even more drastic changes - for example, in the Constitution. For now, the program includes a promise to restore the President's right to freely appoint an interim prime minister, i.e. to remove the "home book".
The Progressive Bulgaria is being outlined as a unisex force, which will provide for everyone and will be a bridge towards its expected profile in the future, through the massive battle against the oligarchy, which it promises now.
The rhetoric of the party leader Rumen Radev is sharp and aggressive, including towards the CC-DB. He has maintained his attacking style, which he demonstrated as president. Despite the campaign portraying him as a politician among a multitude of sympathizers, he remains somewhat distant. In comparison to Borisov, Radev is cold and very polished.
The GERB campaign is outlined to be positive and leader-centered. Its slogan is "Order, Work, Growth!"
The party and Borisov are betting on models that have always brought them success. The National Assembly (March 22), in which Borisov was re-elected as leader and the changes in the party's leadership are very minor.
The holding of the high forum was also the genuine start of the campaign for the vote on April 19. It was dense and fruitful. Borisov returned to his good years when he fully controlled the party.
If there was any tension related to the resignation of the government, it has been subdued. Borisov is giving time another chance to work for him. GERB is resilient and gives a sign that it can wait for the moment when Radev will start descending the ladder instead of climbing it. The CC-DB coalition, which seemed to be the winner of early elections after the protests, is now on the verge of not participating in them due to internal coalition problems.
Asen Vassilev emerged as a leader of the "hawkish" type, known for his hardline stance. This has resulted in positive effects towards his opponents (as seen in his behavior in the budget committee before the protests), but has caused tensions with his coalition partners. Despite some controversy, the coalition managed to survive this vote, but its longevity is now in question. The Vassilev-Mirchev tandem, who were united during the protests, has been ruptured.
In their campaign, the CC-DB party is counting on the memory of the large protests from December 2025, but for now, there is a strong contrast between the massive protests and the audience at their pre-election rallies.
In the month leading up to the parliamentary vote, MRF is actively pursuing two strategies. One is not visible to the general public, and that is their work on the ground with voters. . The second is the public expression and defense of positions that clearly position the party and its leader, highlighting opponents, goals and tasks.
MRF has an advantage that sets it apart from other parties – strong structures, iron organization and continuous work in places, regardless of approaching elections or not. This is the key to its sustainable rating.
The relations with the caretaker government (and with CC-DB) are moving on military rails, and very clearly affect the issue of fairness in the upcoming elections. The process is going through the activity of two caretaker ministers – Minister of Justice Andrey Yanukov and Minister of the Interior Emil Dechev, who made drastic changes in the structures of the Ministry of Interior in Kardzhali, Dzhebel, Momchilgrad and others.
The actions in the mixed regions are a double-edged knife. On one hand, there is a demonstration of the temporary power's efforts to fight against the bought votes of the MRF party. On the other hand, there are reports that citizens there feel repressed and this, in addition to a possible challenging of the votes, could have an impact on the overall political climate in the country.
As a party that lost voters following the emergence of Rumen Radev, "Revival" is becoming more radical in its main positions. They are talking about a new constitution, a new social contract, a new political elite, a semi-presidential republic, a bicameral parliament, and restructuring of the state.
This is in line with the mass disappointment in Bulgaria. But in the new political situation it seems that "Revival" (only) speaks of change, while Radev has a chance to realize it if PB becomes the first political force. "Revival" entered the campaign tense and mobilized, focusing on ground work.
The new leader of the Bulgarian Socialist Party Krum Zarkov is making titanic efforts to push the party up.
The intrigue is great - in the sociological surveys, the party is moving around the threshold for entering the next parliament, and a good performance and presence of the left party in the National Assembly could decide the issue of governance.
For the BSP itself, the stakes are high, and the party and the new leader are aware of this. Survival is on the line - as an extra-parliamentary party, it will be at risk of gradual marginalization.
Zarkov is trying to make the BSP sexy, by returning its left-wing character. The pre-election campaign offers an excellent opportunity for this to be seen.
The BSP is taking a stand against the neoliberal doctrine and the neoliberal state, but not from a position of conservatism and nationalism like "Revival" or MRF, but from a left-wing ideology.
The position of the Advocate General of the Court of Justice of the European Union on the case related to the removal of Andrey Gyuov as deputy governor of the Bulgarian National Bank has placed President Iliana Yotova in the eye of a political storm. The expressed position is not a decision and is yet to come, but regardless of what the legal outcome of the complicated case will be, its impact on the political processes is already a fact.
The developments in the case are yet another manifestation of the constitutional changes within the "jigsaw puzzle", which left a constitutional vacuum and should be repealed.
Mainly due to the political reactions, the "Gyuov" case has loomed like a sword of Damocles over the interim government. The high tension can have serious consequences. The first is to challenge the results of the elections. The second hypothesis falls short, but its realization should not be dismissed: if there is no possibility of forming a regular government and holding new parliamentary elections, a second interim cabinet under Andrey Gyurov appears completely excluded.
The case brings new image damages to Gyurov and his party CC- DB.
In the field of international relations concerning our partners, the interim government is acting orthodoxly. The visit to Kiev of the Prime Minister and the government delegation confirm this. During the visit, Gyurov signed a 10-year agreement with Ukraine in the defense sector, which also foresees joint production of drones. It is a reasonable question whether an interim government can engage the country with such a long-term contract.
Gyurov is the first caretaker government in Bulgaria, working during an escalating war with consequences worldwide. It has adopted a package of measures, but as the crisis grows, no government in any country will be able to fully compensate its citizens. For now, the caretaker cabinet calmly accepts the challenges and does not panic.
If the war continues and the crisis processes develop, there may be a heavy impact on national and personal budgets. If the financial and economic challenges are combined with others - refugee pressure, military threats, risks to national security, Bulgaria will find itself in a completely new situation, unknown for decades.
Whoever the winner on April 19, they will be in a difficult situation. Not only because of predictions that they will have to seek partners for a government. But because they will be fiercely attacked, both if they succeed and if they fail. A new vote, however, will multiply one main risk: the growing populism in the conditions of an all-encompassing crisis and geopolitical transformations.
In times like these, a basic consensus among political forces is required, but the call for consensus has become a cliché. And more importantly - an impossible process to achieve in the dramatic division along the status-quo-change axis, with all political forces carrying part of the blame.
The global economy has sunk into a new crisis - an energy crisis that reminds us of its destructive power and the desperate attempts of countries to reduce economic losses, which are more short-term, with hopes of oil and gas deliveries being restored.
In Bulgaria, occupied by internal election dramas, the "international situation" became a wonderful occasion for bidding on who will save businesses and citizens from the rising prices of oil and gas. The "mother-state," equally hated and worshipped, once again took the front line in the political and economic choir.
The banks reported a successful adoption of the euro while maintaining stability in the banking system. There are no disturbances in credit risk or in the quality of the bank portfolios, which is good news at the start of a new energy turbulence. At least it is clear that from now on, inflation will not be explained by the euro.
The war in which Israel succeeded in dragging the US into after prolonged pressure will have consequences that will test the sustainability of the long-standing doctrine of unconditional support for Israel by the US.
For the first time, Republican voters openly question who really controls US foreign policy - Netanyahu or Trump. The American president entered into war without convincing neither public opinion, nor the foreign policy elite about its necessity, without even seeking approval from Congress. As the expenses of the operation begin to weigh heavily on American voters, criticism will intensify and raise the question "why - and because of whom - did we actually go to war?". All of this will have significant political consequences and will also become evident in the congressional elections in November.
In the longer term, the USA will lose its prestigious international influence in the emerging world order. Israel will not be able to realize its project for a Greater Israel. Iran will survive and become one of the main global players. China will resist the American pressure and will be the other global power in the East.
The analysis was prepared by the following team:
Tanya Joeva, Institute for Strategies and Analyses
Valeria Veleva, Director of the Institute for Strategies and Analyses
Prof. Daniela Bobeva (economics)
Simeon Nikolov (geopolitics)
International observers:
Dr. Plamen Hristov (Energy and Politics, Greece)
Dr. Anton Panchev (Albania, Kosovo)
Here is the full content of the analysis:
I. CONCLUSIONS AND FORECASTS
II. DOMESTIC POLITICAL DYNAMICS AND KEY INSTITUTIONS THE BATTLE FOR THE 52ND NATIONAL ASSEMBLY BEGINS, ACCELERATED BY SHOCKS AND HIGH EXPECTATIONS BULGARIA AND THE MILITARY CONFLICT IN THE MIDDLE EAST PRESIDENT RUMEN YOTOVA - IN THE EYE OF THE POLITICAL STORM THE CARETAKER GOVERNMENT - IN A STATE OF HIGH TENSION
III. Pre-election and party dynamics: "Progressive Bulgaria" coalition rides on the wave of outrage towards GERB - Borisov dominates the party, CC-DB bets on previous accomplishments, turmoil in the "Revival" coalition, MRF radicalizes and demands a restart of the state, MVR's actions solidify the electorate, BSP's survival is at stake, Zarko's attempt to revive the party
IV. ECONOMY GLOBAL ECONOMY UNDER STRESS, BULGARIA - IN THE HEAVEN OF ELECTION PROGRAMS IS THE GLOBAL ECONOMY HEADED TOWARDS AN ENERGY CRISIS EUROPEAN UNION ATTEMPTS TO REGULATE ITS TRADE RELATIONS PARTY PROGRAMS - POLITICAL ECONOMY AND REVOLUTIONARY PHRASEOLOGY FULL CONSENSUS FOR REDUCING ADMINISTRATIVE BURDEN FOR BUSINESS STRONG FOCUS - FIGHTING CORRUPTION TAX SYSTEM WILL BE PRESERVED NO GUARANTEES FOR STABILITY OF PUBLIC FINANCES COMPLETE CHAOS IN ENERGETICS DIGITAL ECONOMY AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE BANKS REPORTED SUCCESS IN ADOPTING THE EURO
V. GEOPOLITICS THE WAR BETWEEN THE US AND ISRAEL – THE TERRIFYING REALITY OF A GEOPOLITICAL INSANITY CONSEQUENCES OF THE WAR AGAINST IRAN ON COUNTRIES IN THE REGION – PEACE IS STRATEGIC WISDOM DEEP DIVISION AND LOSSES FOR EUROPEAN COUNTRIES RUSSIA, CHINA AND THE MUTUAL INFLUENCE BETWEEN THE WARS IN UKRAINE AND THE MIDDLE EAST FRANCE'S PROPOSAL FOR NUCLEAR DETERRENCE DOES NOT CHANGE SECURITY IN EUROPE
VI. ENERGY AND POLITICS ATHENS AND WASHINGTON ACTIVATE THEIR COOPERATION THROUGH THE VERTICAL CORRIDOR
VII. REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS GREECE – TENSION IN THE GOVERNING PARTY "NEW DEMOCRACY" ALBANIA – EDI RAMA THREATENS THE COUNTRY'S INTEGRATION IN THE EU KOSOVO – HIGH PROBABILITY OF NEW EARLY PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS.
Mobile verison
RSS
