29679 | 4 June 2025 | 17:10

Radev entered the niche of fears, who during his mandates consistently imposed the division between them, the parties, and the people on whose behalf he spoke. The president's criticisms mobilize state institutions and the government

The Institute for Strategies and Analyses (ISA) has published its political analysis of the events in Bulgaria, Europe, and the world in May 2025 under the title:

BULGARIA IN THE BATTLE FOR THE EURO. THE PRESIDENT WITH AN UNPRECEDENTED SABOTAGE.

THE GOVERNMENT MOBILIZES. GERB MAINTAINS A STRONG LEAD. "REBIRTH" RIDES THE WAVE OF RADICAL POPULISM. DPS - A NEW BEGINNING - ONE STEP HAS CUT OFF FOR THE DPS. BSP - TURMOIL IN THE MEMBERSHIP. TRUMP HAS RETURNED FROM THE NEAR EAST WITH BILLIONS OF DOLLARS, BUT WITHOUT AN OLIVE BRANCH FOR PEACE.

We offer you a summary of the MAIN FINDINGS AND FORECASTS:

May became the month of the battle for the euro. The resistance to the introduction of the common European currency in Bulgaria from January 1, 2026 was expected, but very rough.

The provocation is unprecedented because it came from the top of the state - from the president. The head of state questions the prospects for the nation, clearly aware of the possible consequences of his actions.

RADEV SEEKS POLITICAL EFFECT

Rumen Radev is looking for a political effect - a crisis that will refresh his image as a victim - a role he successfully entered for the first time in the summer of 2020.

Why the president chose to raise a second fist precisely against the euro seems understandable.

Due to the lack of a broad and convincing information campaign, fears in Bulgarian society are very strong. In the last decades, there has been no problematic sector where the state has been able to impose its vision, laws and justice. The traffic movement is a vivid example of this.

Traditional concerns about institutions not being able to handle the challenge and potentially harming people are now focused on the euro. Trust in the elite is low, which fuels doubts that they (meaning, politicians and parties) are lying to us. In this niche, Radev entered, who during his mandates consistently imposed the division between them, the parties and the people, in whose name he spoke.

The adoption of the euro is also perceived as a stake in the long-standing battle between East and West. Despite social fears about adopting the euro and the crisis surrounding Brussels, a larger share of the population is choosing the West.

Fears were pitted against fears, and Radev underestimated the fears of a geopolitical turn in an eastern/Eurasian direction.

If Bulgaria misses the deadline of January 1, 2026, the country's accession afterwards is highly uncertain, and both supporters and opponents of the euro are aware of this.

 The presidential elections next year could radically change the situation. The battle for the euro truly looks like the "final battle" and this intensifies the behavior of all participants.

 If Bulgaria enters the Eurozone, there is a chance that political crises could be alleviated, as one major obstacle will be removed.  

President Radev's chances for a successful political career from now on are tied to potential mistakes of his opponents. His own resources seem to be depleted.

Critics of the president are mobilizing state institutions and the government.

If they manage to deal with the problems (first and foremost the expected speculation), the cabinet will have a serious capital to continue its work.

In focus in parliament was the contract between Bulgaria and "Botash". It turns into a scandal that will be the label of the caretaker government of the president.

Radev's hesitation to start a party project has its grounds in the war with the parties, part of which is the scandalous agreement with "Botash".

A SPECTACLE OF AGGRESSION IS PRESENT IN PARLIAMENT

The tasks and portfolios are allocated, there is no tension between the partners in the government. Early elections are not yet on the horizon, although many analysts mention them in their comments.

May was a month that pushed the leading Bulgarian politicians to the brink of nervous breakdown. The public space is dominated by political noise. In parliament, disgraceful scenes unfold as political forces impress their hardcore supporters while pushing away reasonable and moderate citizens.

The 51st National Assembly has become a permanent arena for political battles seeking spectacle above all else.

Nataliya Kiselova took a great risk with her decision not to bring Radev's request for a vote in the hall, staking her professional authority. The solution will come from the Constitutional Court.

The resolution for the transport blockade in Sofia cannot be easily defined as a happy ending. The decision is temporary and has been provoked by a spiral of protests, with crises piling up in the capital.

Zhelyazkov is working at a tight pace, and his reaction to the provocation from the president was quick. The executive power is focused and consistent in discussing and proposing measures to strengthen the role of the state in crisis sectors. Pragmatic policies are being implemented through the prism of the interests of Bulgarian citizens.

BORISOV - A LEADING FORCE IN THE GOVERNMENT, DESPITE NOT BEING THE PRIME MINISTER

GERB is leading convincingly in sociological surveys. Through verbal and non-verbal communication, Borisov manages to emphasize that he is a leading force in the government, despite not being the prime minister. Sometimes this is a double-edged sword, as both successes and failures are attributed to him.

Borisov's position on the euro is very categorical, and this brings him into direct conflict with Radev.

Borisov maintains old political friendships and contacts abroad (Merkel, Erdogan) and emphasizes this fact.

GERB is trying to regain its influence in Sofia, but there is no indication that this is happening so far. Disappointment with Mayor Terziev is evident, but this does not automatically put GERB back in a leading position.    

CC-DB - UNCONDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM WASHINGTON IS LACKING    

CC-DB operates in a difficult situation. There are no allies on the domestic political field and they are constantly under attack. On the international level, the unconditional support from Washington is now lacking.

CC-DB have two main opponents along the two main dividing lines. On the Euro-Atlantic - Radev, and on the anti-corruption - Peevski, but they have both interacted in the past - they supported Radev for a second term, and worked with Peevski within the "coalition". This makes the representatives of the coalition unconvincing.

However, it can be seen that the more they attack them, the stronger their interest becomes to stay together.

"REVIVAL" RIDES THE WAVE OF RADICAL POPULISM

As a populist formation, "Rebirth" invariably speaks on behalf of the people, suggesting that it knows what all Bulgarian citizens want. This is accompanied by threats that correspond to revolutionary sentiments.

The party's hyperactivity on the issue of the euro and the fueling of all possible fears in Bulgarian society - from impoverishment to dragging us into war and another national disaster, puts the remaining parties in an explanatory mode, pressuring them while at the same time radicalizing the moods. Kostadin Kostadinov called for a protest and blockade of parliament on June 4, when the convergence report is expected to be released. The final rhetoric of "Revival" provokes another extreme rhetoric - from its opponents, and in this environment, reasonable proposals are drowned out.

"Revival" achieves another effect: they unite and strengthen pro-European and Euro-Atlantic parties (171 MPs supported the declaration in support of the euro).

Radev's entry into the field of populism makes him a competitor to Kostadinov. The remark that the president changed his position after instructions from outside is not coincidental. The suggestion for a change of government is present, albeit indirectly.

The party is pouring fire on everyone and everything. Destructive behavior towards Bulgarian institutions is spreading to international organizations in which Bulgaria is a member.

There is a sense that the new world order is making its way through denial, anarchy and insecurity, and its most radical defenders in Bulgaria are in the party of Kostadinov - the most successful nationalist project that takes advantage of the mistakes of the old liberal order at a key historical moment.

MRF - NEW BEGINNING DEMONSTRATES CONFIDENCE AND SELF-SENSITY, PEEVSKI OVERTHROWS DOGAN

MRF - NEW BEGINNING is demonstrating confidence and self-assurance as it gains new positions in local government.

Peevski overthrows Dogan, taking over one of his party fortresses one by one. In just ten months, Peevski has practically kicked Dogan off the political stage.

With an unprecedented move, the Movement for Rights and Freedoms was torn apart. Jevdet Chakarov was photographed with Peevski and resigned as co-chair, calling for unification processes in the name of a new beginning. The division within MRF was put to an end, and the victory, brand, and party were won by Peevski.

Accusations of betrayal lose their significance in light of the fact that Chakarov was chosen by Ahmet Dogan.

Some of the founders of MRF came out against Dogan, demanding that he take responsibility for all the mistakes - political and personnel - that he had made in the past. It is widely believed that Dogan is now a political pensioner. His loss is historical - he overestimated himself; his time has passed, he no longer has any influence on the processes in the country and in the MRF. The removal of his portrait from the party headquarters has symbolic significance.

A process of "peeling off" the parliamentary group of DRF- MRF is also starting.

Peеvski continues his rise, keeping a close eye on the executive power and the work of the parliament. Through his control over the local government, he is able to implement the policies that he emphasizes on. Through projects that improve the quality of life, the party has a chance to expand its electoral influence and stabilize as a factor in Bulgarian politics. For now - he is officially out of power, but with the visible influence of its leader everywhere. The geo-political situation is changing in Peеvski's favor and he is able to surf on the events.

BSP IN CONFLICT WITH RADEV

The unexpected request of President Radev for a national referendum on the euro has put the party that supported him for state leader in a difficult situation. This shows that Radev's relationship with the BSP has long been broken, and the reason is not only the previous leadership of the socialist party and Korneliya Ninova. Radev is a lone player who forms situational alliances.

BSP and Radev are in conflict, reminiscent of the era of Ninova.

BSP cannot support the populist request of the president, which seeks political dividends. These dividends will be at the expense of BSP if Radev forms his own party. He again hinted at his own project, talking about a "new political alternative". The question remains - when will Radev decide to step into party politics.

SLAVI TRIFONOV WITH VIRTUAL LEADERSHIP, TOSHKO YORDANOV DOMINATING PUBLICLY  

TISP held the strangest National Conference of a Bulgarian party in our new history. The forum took place in almost complete secrecy - behind closed doors, and the information was too concise.  

Slavi Trifonov's virtual leadership is shrinking more and more. His deputy Toshko Yordanov dominates publicly. TISP is a stable partner in the management.

MUH is one of the parties that hinder "Revival" from growing.

The political force, led by Radostin Vasiliev, is radical and clearly populist.

"Greatness" is the typical mini-parliamentary party in Bulgaria whose goal (and task) is to make noise, play opposition to the government, attract votes and attention from dissatisfied citizens, and create a sense that they have political representation.

Such parties were very common during the years of transition (BSP is a shining example) and their antics are responsible for the extremely low rating of the parliament - the institution that traditionally ranks at the bottom of sociological surveys.

Uncertainty in foreign trade and economic problems in the largest markets for Bulgarian goods are outlining negative trends for the GDP.

This is also the main reason why the European Commission, with its Spring forecast, justifies its traditional skepticism towards Bulgarian economic growth, decreasing its forecast by nearly 1% - a quite serious decrease. Only a 2% economic growth is expected this year, which, if it happens, will put public finances under a serious test under equal conditions.

There is a highly negative impact on Ukraine and Russia, from which we are waiting to see results, due to the revealed massive preparations for war in several European countries.  

This is particularly noticeable in Poland, Germany and the United Kingdom. The continuation of the war at the expense of Ukraine for the purpose of draining Russia and preparing for its future dismemberment is the main goal. The question remains how realistic this is.

Russia is obviously not surprised, because it started transforming its former brigades from the northwest flank into divisions with over 10,000 soldiers, a decision which was made after NATO's expansion with Finland and Sweden. However, it is difficult to speak of peace with such overt war preparations. London's historical ambitions for influence in the Black Sea will compel Russia to expand its military operation to Odessa, in order to prevent the fulfillment of British goals, but this would cut off Ukraine from vital maritime routes. On the other hand, turning the Baltic countries, Poland, Romania, and Bulgaria into a launching pad for attacking Russia will soon turn them into a second Ukraine.

This cannot be expected yet tomorrow, but the latest major projects such as the one for a military base at the Moldovan-Ukrainian border and the deployment of 100,000 NATO troops by 2039 is a fact and speaks for itself.In such a complicated situation, it is always better to seek diplomacy and balance, rather than militarization, which would lead us into dangerous delusion.

The analysis was prepared by a team consisting of:

Tanya Dzhoeva

Institute for Strategies and Analyses

Valeria Veleva

Director of the Institute for Strategies and Analyses

Prof. Daniela Bobeva (economics)

Simeon Nikolov (geopolitics)

International observers:

Dr. Plamen Hristov (Greece, Cyprus, Energy and Politics)

Dr. Anton Panchev (Albania, Kosovo)

Here is the full content of the analysis:

I. CONCLUSIONS AND FORECASTS

II. DIAGNOSIS DOMESTIC POLITICAL DYNAMICS AND KEY INSTITUTIONS

BULGARIA AND THE EURO - EXPECTED, BUT WITH HARSH SABOTAGE BY THE HEAD OF STATE

UNPRECEDENTED SHAKES FOR THE COUNTRY CALCULATIONS AND TRENDS FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

PARLIAMENT - THE ARENA OF BATTLES

KISELOVA RETURNS TO FOCUS

THE GOVERNMENT MOBILIZES FOR THE EURO

THE STRIKE IN SOFIA - WINNERS AND LOSERS

PROTESTS AND THE AUTHORITARIANISM OF THE GOVERNMENT - DIALOGUE CULTURE TURNING TO ZERO.

III. PARTY DYNAMICS:

GERB MAINTAINS A CONVINCING LEAD

CC-DB – WITH FURIOUS RHETORIC AGAINST RADEV

“REVIVAL” STALLS THE WAVE OF RADICAL POPULISM

MRF – NEW BEGINNING – ONE STEP CUTS THE KNOT FOR MRF

BSP– TURMOIL IN MEMBERSHIP

AHMED DOGAN LOSES

“THERE IS SUCH A PEOPLE” – LEADING PARTY WITH AN INVISIBLE LEADER

MUH – OBSTACLES FOR KOSTADINOV TO GROW

“GREATNESS” – MINI POWER WITH A QUESTIONABLE IMAGE

IV. ECONOMY

ECONOMY IN MAY: A RAIN OF GOOD NEWS AND BAD FORECASTS

WE WILL LIVE WITH TWO YEARS LONGER GDP AND THE NEW FORECASTS FOR THE BULGARIAN ECONOMY

GLOMINARY FORECASTS OF THE MOF FOR 2026 – “THE YEAR OF THE EURO” GROWTH IN INVESTMENTS ARE WE UNABLE TO SPEND OUR INCREASED INCOME? PROMISES OF A HIGHER RATING TARIFFS ON EUROPEAN GOODS IN LIMBO THE GREEN TRANSITION IS IN TRANSITION THE ELECTRIC POWER INDUSTRY WITH MORE ENERGY AND MORE EXPORTS “THE SUN IS AHEAD OF SCIENCE”

V. GEOPOLITICS:

TRUMP RETURNS FROM THE MIDDLE EAST WITH BILLIONS OF DOLLARS, BUT WITHOUT AN OLIVE BRANCH FOR PEACE AS NEGOTIATIONS STALL, CHANCES FOR PEACE DECLINE WHAT CAN WE EXPECT FROM THE UPCOMING NEW DEFENSE STRATEGY OF THE USA? DOES THE EU LACK THE RESOLVE TO COORDINATE AND LEAD IN THIS CRITICAL PHASE OF US WITHDRAWAL? EUROPE BEGINS TO AWAKEN AS LESSONS FROM A TEMPORARILY AVERTED NUCLEAR CONFRONTATION ARE LEARNED: GLOBAL SOLIDARITY IS NOT JUST A MORAL IMPERATIVE, BUT AN EXISTENTIAL ONE.

VI.ENERGY AND POLITICS:

THE US CONGRESS DEFINES THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN AS A PRIMARY GEOSTRATEGIC REGION. 

VII. REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT

GREECE - DIALOGUE WITH TURKEY ON CONTRADICTIONS IN THE AEGEAN AND MEDITERRANEAN SEAS – NEW HORIZON FOR THE CYPRUS ISSUE – NEW MANAGEMENT MANDATE FOR THE SOCIALIST PARTY OF KOSOVO – CHANCES FOR FORMING A GOVERNMENT SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE