16298 | 31 Oct. 2025 | 17:48
The Institute for Strategies and Analyses (ISA) has published its political analysis of the events in Bulgaria, Europe, and the world for the month of October 2025, titled
: "AFTER THE ELECTION EARTHQUAKE IN PAZARDZHIK: BORISOV "BRIDGES" THE SCANDALS, THE POWER STABILIZES, BUT THE RISKS INCREASE. ZHELYAZKOV CLAIMS A NEW TYPE OF POLITICS." GERB REMAINS A STABILIZING FACTOR, MRF IS RISING RAPIDLY, AND BSP CHOOSES A VARIANT THAT DOES NOT HARM THE STATE AND SOCIETY. BULGARIAN ECONOMY IN OCTOBER 2025: BREAD AND SPECTACLES. THE EUROPEAN UNION MILITARIZES, BUT DOES NOT REPLACE NATO.
We present a summary of the MAIN CONCLUSIONS AND FORECASTS:
October 2025 was marked by strong political dynamics, unlocked after the extraordinary local elections in Pazardzhik and the emotionally charged monologue of GERB leader Boyko Borisov on the matter.
GERB-MRF AGREEMENT - A NEW BEGINNING GIVES A HORIZON FOR A FULL TERM
With the agreement for a full term, reached by the parliamentary groups of GERB-UDF and MRF-NB, the shake-up of the government ended, but external risks to power remain. Furthermore – the government is consolidating, but the political confrontation is intensifying. Once it's ruling party vs opposition, the next time – it's a game with the state head.
Local elections have their own specifics and differ from national votes, but they can indicate trends. In the case of the competition for the municipal parliament in Pazardzhik, the trend showed an increase in support for the MRF. Transferred onto the overall political situation, this was interpreted as a sign of Delian Peevski's growing power, which shook first and foremost all of his political opponents – from CC-DB to the president.
And Borisov himself is in a new situation, whose contours he did everything possible to calm down. The concerning comments following the vote in Pazardzhik were about his position as leader of the leading party and as a three-time prime minister, stating that he was no longer the strong figure in the country. That he was losing his symbolic status as the leader who held all the power. Of course, this was not the case, but it was portrayed through public statements. Borisov's mistake was that he exploded. In other words, he showed that the loss of power (even just symbolically) was his weak point.
Political stakes were raised, with the opposition talking about a "captured state," a "soft dictatorship" (CC-DB), and the need for a "restructuring of the state" ("Revival"). However, the differences between the opposition forces are no less dramatic and hinder the formation of an alternative to the current coalition.
LACK OF TRUST TOWARDS THE POLITICAL CLASS IS THE BIGGEST RISK FOR THE COUNTRY
One of the major risks is for high political tension and social crises to overlap and form a potentially explosive situation. This is due to the fact that trust towards the political class as a whole is very low. ISA emphasizes that the lack of trust towards the political elite is the number one risk for the country.
Citizens consistently turn to their problems and expect solutions. However, every problem - from the sale of " Lukoil", to tax hikes, to floods and road potholes - will be seen through the lens of distrust towards the elite. As a result, the problem will seem even more significant and distrust will continue to grow.
The mass emergence of alternative channels for information is impressive. Mainstream is losing ground as the main source of information shaping public opinion. The new trend is that this retreat is not only in favor of social media, but also of podcasts, YouTube, and self-owned channels.
Engrossed in the high-stakes political game, parties have lost their senses for socially significant issues.
Politics has been reduced to intrigue with no real reforms happening.
Aggression is the new epidemic in Bulgarian society. It is a result of the general insecurity, lack of societal values, and behavioral models that are enticing.
The possibility for long-term plans related to finances, personal development, and life is becoming increasingly problematic not only in Bulgaria. The world is undergoing a transformation and this is affecting the ability to make projects for the future.
What is specific for Bulgaria is that this general uncertainty is combined with a massive transformation that happens once a century - the change of the national currency. This raises concerns, uncertainty, and stress.
The outlined risks should mobilize the government and the political elite as a whole. By concentrating power, the ruling party also concentrates responsibilities.
The forecast of the ISA (Institute for Economic and Social Analysis) is that the government and the majority will face the following challenges: the first one is the budget, which will be discussed next month, and the second one is the effects of adopting the euro in the first half of 2026. But note - after that, an even more difficult period is expected. This is because they will have lost the legitimate basis for their existence in the current format.
From now on, the reasons for negative events will be sought first and foremost in the management model.
POLICY REQUIRES THE "ZHELYAZKOV" STYLE
At a public level, Rosen Zhelyazkov's government smoothly went through the topic of possible "reformatting".
The Prime Minister demonstrated a new approach to problem-solving, prioritizing professionalism over party/political interests. We can now even speak of the "Zhelyazkov style".
In our recent history, the Zhelyazkov cabinet is the most attacked in its first year of existence. At this stage, this mobilizes it.
Our forecast is that efforts to stabilize the government through quick and pragmatic decisions will be at the center of government policy.
The Ministry of Culture has become an example of a "concession ministry". The scandal involving Minister Marian Bachev and the arrested actor is just the top and most visible layer of problems in the department. Purges and selection of personnel based on party affiliation are the dominant policy in the ministry, dictated by Toshko Yordanov, chairman of the Culture Committee in the National Assembly. This cuts off the possibility for parliamentary oversight on the work of the ministry, its scandalous practices and failures.
PEEVSKI GAINS STRENGTH AND INFLUENCE WHILE THE OPPOSITION ATTACKS HIM
The agreement for a full term strengthens the ruling majority internally. The line between ruling and opposition parties in parliament is clearly drawn, but there are also divisions within the opposition parties. This makes it impossible to build a common alternative, but there are issues that unite them. The common denominator of these issues is the leader of the MRF party, Delyan Peevski. By turning him into the universal explanation for everything, however, the opposition (plus the president) give Peevski additional strength and influence.
Despite the insistence on early elections now, the opposition (along with the president) has an interest in a new parliamentary vote when there are signs that the status quo will be seriously shaken. Currently, there are no such signs.
The intrigue surrounding Rumen Radev's political future is growing. The president seems ready to launch his political project when the country is faced with parliamentary elections. However, there are no such elections on the horizon.
It is also in Radev's interest for Peevski and Borisov to go in different directions, to clash, and to have one of them come out victorious. Then, Radev will only have one opponent, not two. In a strong tandem of "Peevski-Borisov," Rumen Radev is weaker.
"Reformatting" legalizes the coalition between GERB, MRF-NB and puts Peevski's party on a new track - to participate in government decision-making and policies, but without having their own representatives in the cabinet. This was a strategic move by Peevski with multiple dimensions. Borisov correctly realized that GERB, BSP and TISP do not have a majority for quorum or for passing the budget and the support of MRF-NB is essential.
RADEV CANNOT BE AN ALTERNATIVE TO THE STATUS QUO, AS HE IS PART OF IT
The attempt to play an alternative to the model is made by President Radev, moving on the edge of the Constitution. According to the fundamental law, the Bulgarian president cannot be a party leader and formally Rumen Radev is not violating it. The hypothesis of his party, however, puts him in an explanatory mode regarding whether he can work on a party project while being head of state, using the resources of the institution.
Bulgaria is facing the most dramatic presidential elections in its recent history. As evidence for this thesis, we offer only one hypothesis, which, however, has real outlines at this, even if early stage. Here is the hypothesis: It is expected that all leading forces will put forward their candidates: GERB, MRF, CC-DB, "Revival", BSP, which announced the nomination of Iliyana Yotova, as well as a potential candidacy supported by Rumen Radev. This foreshadows a fierce battle in the first round, as the stakes are who will participate in the runoff. If these are the candidates of GERB and "Revival", the votes of MRF will most likely flow towards Borisov's party, and the loss of Radev's candidate will be spectacular and will have a negative impact on the future of his project. The same applies if Radev's candidate reaches the second round and loses. According to ISA, the battle in the upcoming presidential election will be for Radev's candidate not to make it to the runoff.
One of the major risks is for high political tension and social crises to converge and form an explosive mixture. A prerequisite for this is the low level of trust in the political class as a whole.
All new parties that have made breakthroughs during the transition years – NDSV, GERB, TISP, have done so by denying it. Radev walks the same path, but the more time passes, the more the question about the ideology of a potential new party becomes prominent. For 10 years, he has remained an enigma, fueling theories that often contradict each other. In this sense, Radev cannot be an alternative to the status quo because he is part of it. The big question arises - what kind of people will Radev choose on what principle? In the 9 years in power, Radev has failed to build a team of positively recognizable individuals.
As a candidate for a savior, the president must come out with a very clear vision of how he will achieve change and what ideology will his potential project have. At this moment Radev has not once declared such a position. Time does not work in favor of the president, as he either takes steps towards creating his own party or withdraws again. From the point of view of the success of his party, he is not winning by staying in the presidency. On the contrary - he has started to lose. Radev is becoming more and more powerless. This is a process that started with the changes in the Constitution regarding caretaker cabinets, and now continues with the revocation of his authority to issue decrees for the appointment of heads of services. Stripped of a number of levers of influence, Radev can only intensify his criticisms in his political rhetoric, and he does so.
Protests Are Present, But No Wave to Threaten the Cabinet.
There are protests in Bulgaria - for rule of law, against adopting the euro, against the captured state and the Ministry of Interior, by young doctors for fair pay, but there is no powerful wave that could seriously threaten the government and lead to resignations and a change in the model. The reason for this can be seen in the series of disappointments in the last five years, which can be summarized as follows: many saviors, but the salvation is becoming increasingly illusory.
GERB Builds behind Borissov
GERB remains a stabilizing factor. The party is building behind Borissov, as at this stage he is giving up the position of prime minister. Borisov's decision is an expression of statesmanship, as elections or shake-ups in the executive branch would also affect the institutions when they need stability in order to function. For example - in the process of changing currencies. We emphasize that a coalition with TISP and BSP is possible as a result of compromises from both major and minor political forces. The request for a full mandate radicalizes the opposition, but calms the partners in power.
Borisov's leadership role in stabilizing the government and the country has once again become evident.
However, GERB's sixth place in Pazardzhik is undoubtedly a warning. The extraordinary elections for municipal councilors were underestimated, as GERB representatives were absent on the local level while other parties were very active. The first place went to MRF-NEW BEGINNING. Success for CC-DB is second place in the municipality where they also have a working mayor.
The result of the regional vote in Pazardzhik sent the message that GERB has a problem. Nationally, they are a dominant force and this clearly reassures the party, slowing down its reflexes.
The shock caused by the Pazardzhik elections has been overcome, with one of the reasons being the risk of the president unveiling a new political project.
Both allies and opponents of GERB remain unchanged.
We expect that the agreement with MRF for a full governing mandate excludes any raiding of party structures.
If the cabinet led by “Zhelyazkov” overcomes the challenges that lie ahead in 2026, a candidate supported by both GERB and MRF-NB has a high chance of winning the race for “Dondoukov” 2. Our forecast is that both parties will have their own nominations, but they could potentially join forces in a runoff, which is most likely to happen.
This raises the stakes in the political game at the moment.
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN PP AND DB ARE BEING FROZEN
The differences between CC and DB are being frozen. Consolidation began with the arrest of the mayor of Varna and continues as MRF-NB strengthens its power.
The ambition for a joint candidate from CC and DB for the presidential elections remains strong. New relations are noticeable between CC-DB and the president, which can be described as a "cold war."
Attacks against representatives of the CC mobilize citizens for resistance, as seen in the reactions to two emblematic stories - with the mayor of Varna, Blagomir Kotsev, and with the mayor of Sofia, Vasil Terziev. But sympathy, protection, and solidarity do not find reflection in the ratings of the party at this stage. The coalition is paying a high political price for its mistakes.
"Revival" with an Exit to the Outside
The development of the (geo)political situation motivates "Revival" to clean up and solidify its profile as a patriotic, conservative, and eurosceptic party with functioning structures, a youth organization, international contacts, and a presence in the national and European Parliaments. Its clear focus and deployment of its activity here and in the EP distinguishes it from the political forces that compete with it on the field of anti-systemism.
In the upcoming early parliamentary elections, "Revival" will neither win nor lose. Due to the party's profile, support for it may only increase in the event of internal upheaval or a shift in geopolitical balances.
The line of absolute separation from Borisov and Peevski is gaining sympathizers, while at the same time preventing them from orienting towards other opposition forces, such as CC-DB.
"Revival" remains the party that sells fears and clearly gains ground in turbulent times.
The influence of MRF-New Beginning is growing in some places.For the first time in October, the trend that sociologists "caught" in previous months was proven through elections. In Pazardzhik, the party became the dominant force.
Its focus is on active work in municipalities, with priority given to projects that solve key problems related to the quality of life. The presence of MRF representatives in the regions is strong not only during election campaigns.
The influence of MRF locally is on the rise and that is the basis from which it can "bounce" to its national influence.
Developments in October - the elections in Pazardzhik and talks about the potential restructuring of the government, placed the party in the spotlight of public attention. The end result: a growing perception of the key role of Delyan Peevski in Bulgarian politics.
BSP (Bulgarian Socialist Party) and TISP (There Is Such a People) - IN A DIFFICULT SITUATION
Small partners like the BSP and TISP are in a difficult situation due to the shocks in governance, regardless of their strength. Participation in power brings damage, so guarantees for a longer horizon for the cabinet are of great importance. The only change that was implemented as a result of the political shock was the introduction of rotation in the presidency of the National Assembly.
The agreement of BSP for the replacement of Natalia Kiselova has provoked conflicting reactions. However, the fact is that by not allowing early parliamentary elections, the party chose an option that does not harm the state and society.
It is also a fact that the socialists are concerned about a decline in popularity, and their meetings in various places are an attempt to clarify their positions to their sympathizers.
Another fact is the strengthening of the policies on the social front, which BSP offers. First and foremost - through the budget. The political turmoil, which ultimately ended only with the agreement for a rotation in the top of the parliament, has enough side effects that are yet to be revealed.
The most noticeable thing is the radicalization of the opposition, which cannot unite, but each party is significantly more aggressive in its political track, as well as in topics that focus strong public interest.
TISP- THE DISAPPOINTMENT OF THE TRANSITION
The party of Slavi Trifonov is becoming the disappointment of the so-called transition in Bulgaria. From a political project that concentrated the expectations of a high public share for a change of the model, it became a main pillar of the status quo and a consumer of power. The latest example - the scandals related to the Ministry of Culture.
TISP's initiative for the personal data law is another blunder that sparked widespread outrage. He is comparable to the scandalous statement of Toshko Yordanov, who drove young doctors to emigrate and promised to import workers who are not demanding in terms of payment like them. The collapse of TISP in the next elections seems inevitable.
SLEEPING RISKS FOR THE ECONOMY
The political uncertainty is already affecting the economy and the damages could lead us to a serious crisis.
According to ISA, if there is a sudden deterioration in economic and financial indicators and a decline in the social status of Bulgarian households, the talk about reformatting and SMS will become unnecessary.
Dissatisfaction will overwhelm the current elite in order to clear the field for new political forces. We have been repeatedly surprised in recent years by the resilience of the economy to political turmoil and problems, but the "credit" that the economy has been giving to politics all these years is about to run out. Despite the formal indications of a relatively good state - high economic growth, low unemployment and a trend of decreasing inflation - this seemingly good picture is so deceptive that no one believes it. The economic growth is unhealthy - mainly due to construction, trade, real estate and domestic demand, while exports are decreasing.
The low unemployment drives wages and inflation up, while the production capacity of the economy remains only partially utilized with decreasing labor productivity. The slight decline in inflation in September is rather a temporary phenomenon, which we won't even have time to be happy about, because the "sleeping" factor in recent months - energy and energy sources - could wake up at any moment. The analysis was prepared by a team consisting of:
Tanya Joeva, Institute for Strategies and Analyses;
Valeria Veleva, Director of the Institute for Strategies and Analyses;
Prof. Daniela Bobeva (economics)
Simeon Nikolov (geopolitics)
International observers:Dr. Plamen Hristov (Greece)
Dr. Anton Panchev (Albania, Kosovo)
Here is the full content of the analysis:
I.CONCLUSIONS AND FORECASTS
II.INTERNAL POLITICAL DYNAMICS AND MAIN INSTITUTIONSGOVERNMENT ENTERS A RISK ZONE - CONFRONTATION AT THE TOP, AGGRESSION AND FEARS IN SOCIETYEMOTIONS AND SHOCKS AFTER THE ELECTIONS IN PAZARDZHIK. Sensible compromises preserve government - clashes escalate, rotation of President Radev - in anticipation of upcoming elections, which may not happen soon. Ironclad with a request for a new type of politics.
III. Party dynamics - Borisov's "bridge" over scandals, GERB remains a stabilizing factor. CC-DB - differences are frozen. DPS is rapidly rising. "Revival" solidifies its profile as a eurosceptic party. BSP chooses a option that does not harm the country and society. "There is such a people" - the disappointment of the transition. MRF is building impactful structures. "Greatness" is on the brink of division.
IV. ECONOMY Bulgarian economy in October 2025: bread and attractions are thrown out, banned and forgotten, protectionism has spread to everyone. The introduction of new tariffs in the USA has a reflection on Bulgaria's trade balance. The European economy shows resilience towards external shocks and internal political instability. "Optimist of the Year" should be given to NSI (National Statistical Institute), where imported data comes from. Preparation for the Euro finals - nobody believes in inflation data; from Doycheva (former Finance Minister) to the Bank.
V. GEOPOLITICS In a world of warring politics, rhetoric is not what shapes its fate. The cessation of peace is not a lasting one. "Without justice, peace will always be an illusion. The Nobel Peace Prize is turning into an instrument of geopolitics. The European Union is becoming militarized, but does not challenge NATO's interests, challenges and hopes for a single president.
VI. Regional developments. Greece with a vision for a national contribution in managing global issues at the UN. Albania - disagreements between the head of state Edi Rama and Kosovar leader Albin Kurti deepen. Kosovo - first round of local elections and inevitable early parliamentary elections."
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