42166 | 3 Oct. 2024 | 17:22

Apathy and alienation among citizens do not only concern the parties, but politics as a whole, and this undermines the foundations of Bulgarian society. The left coalition is a step in the right direction and the only opportunity to stop the decline of BS

 The Institute for Strategies and Analyses (ISA) has published its political analysis on the events in Bulgaria, Europe, and the world during the month of September 2024 under the title:

 BULGARIA BEFORE THE ELECTION(S) - CRISIS OF THE DEMOCRATIC MODEL
GERB - WITHOUT QUAKES BUT TIRED
CC-DB- TENSIONS BETWEEN PARTNERS
"REVIVAL" - CHANCES OF WINNING SECOND PLACE
MRF- TOTAL AND MERCILESS WAR
BSP - NEW ENERGY WITH THE LEFT UNION UPCOMING LONG-TERM REGIONAL WAR

 We offer you a summary of the MAIN CONCLUSIONS AND FORECASTS:

 The battles within and for MRF have become the main intrigue of the upcoming parliamentary elections, which will remain until the very end.

 It is a solid and well-founded forecast that both wings will be present in the next parliament.  This automatically means that the political crisis will not have the basis to be resolved even after the seventh vote.

 The political crisis has taken the form of internal party divisions, battles on the field of law, and this creates a risk of them replacing politics.

 Apathy and alienation of citizens do not only apply to parties, but to politics as a whole, and this erodes the foundations of Bulgarian society.

 This is fertile ground for easy implementation of radical solutions - for example, for a presidential republic instead of strengthening the party system in democratic conditions.

 Where is the risk? It is naive to believe that the distrust towards parties will transform into trust towards the president, and this will bring back enthusiasm for politics and strengthen democracy. On the contrary - there is every reason for it to weaken.

 Following the latest elections in Bulgaria, a new compromise and interim government with the label of expert, technocratic, non-partisan may be formed.

 There are no indications that a right-wing government, or one with strong-handed rule, will develop around a single party. The possibility of having no government at all cannot be ruled out either. In all three scenarios, however, the erosion of democracy will be a fact, and political transformations will be inevitable.

 It is symptomatic that the crisis has hit the systemic parties - BSP and MRF - the only two out of all current parliamentary forces that have existed in their current form throughout the transition.

 GERB, which shows resilience and sustainability, was founded in 2006.

 It became the party that could form coalitions both on the left and the right. At that time, MRF began to lose part of its balancing role.

 Now GERB remains the first political force, but their centrist potential is weak. They are not an attractive coalition partner for the others, but there is no other choice. This has been the political drama in recent years.

 The systemic parties are in crisis, but the new formations don't have enough strength to establish themselves.

 Bulgaria is trying to break away from the time since 1989 that we call a transition.

 Let us draw a parallel - the end of socialism started with the beginning of the so-called "perestroika" and lasted for almost five years. The current question is how long will the end of the transition period last and will Bulgaria break away from the orbit of established democracies. Or, on the contrary, will it join definitively with the acceptance of the euro and Schengen.

 It is not only time for elections, but for choice.

 Time is not on the side of the president. The expectation of his supporters to enter the political field with their own party is starting to turn into disappointment. This has been going on for too long, despite having multiple chances to materialize.

 The contrast is sharp with the time when the president succeeded in raising a protest wave with the anti-corruption banner. His current warning to the "indifferent" society can also be read as an admission of wasted energy - a process that the president cannot distance himself from.

 Radev's current partnerships seem to be directed towards Borisov, the Dogan faction, the new leadership of the BSP, and TISP. To a lesser extent - towards "Revival" (at least on a visible level), while the paths to CC-DB seem to be permanently cut off. The real war is with Peevski and his faction. The attacks from Delian Peevski are throwing him off balance. Radev responds, but avoids being the first to attack.

 Regardless of the results of the tragedy with the downed military plane, it has become clear once again that our combat aviation is operating under conditions of insufficient flight hours (flying time), outdated equipment, shortage of spare parts and repairs.

 For years, there has been a dispute over which fighter jets our country should purchase in order to maintain its combat aviation. The conclusion today is that the Air Force survives, but at a very high cost - the cost of human losses.

 Relations between Sofia and Skopje have reached a boiling point. The Minister of Transport of the Republic of North Macedonia, Nikoloski, touched on one of the most sensitive issues for which Bulgaria reacts - the shared history, and this is no coincidence.

 The party that has come into power in the Republic of North Macedonia won the vote with an intensified anti-Bulgarian rhetoric, promising that the constitution will not be changed, etc.

 Anti-Bulgarianism is an identifying marker of VMRO-DPMNE, but the opposition to Sofia also has economic dimensions. These, as well as the clearly outlined axis of Vienna-Budapest-Belgrade, became quite visible when the new government in Skopje announced Corridor 10 as their priority at the expense of Corridor 8.

 Skopje does not have the support of Brussels for yet another delay in the implementation of Corridor 8. That is why North Macedonia needs to maintain constant tension with Bulgaria.

 On the path to European integration, North Macedonia and Albania were divided, and Orban's request to mediate in the relations between Sofia and Skopje is not only inappropriate, but also reinforces the thesis about the Vienna-Budapest-Belgrade-Skopje axis, which works against the interests of Bulgaria.

 With the start of its new session, parliament entered a pre-election mode, which in its final hours spun at super-fast speeds.

 Scenes of an occupied podium, dimmed lights in the hall, and an improvised national anthem put the final touch on the 50th National Assembly and turned them into its symbol.

 The characteristic features of the last parliament are populism, floating majorities, thematic coalitions, and reorganization based on unclear principles. In the same or even more fragmented parliament after October 27th, the creation of a valuable and stable majority seems unlikely.

 Low voter turnout and low expectations for forming a government after October 27th. That seems to be the overall picture at the start of the campaign.

 Another failure for GERB in forming a government could hit the party very hard and Borisov is aware of this danger. With proposals such as the "gentleman's agreement," he is buying time and relative calmness during the campaign.

 What is happening in BSP and MRF is like a lesson for Borisov.

 The developments there clearly show that when a leadership is being questioned, internal disputes and disruptive processes follow.

 CC-DB is in the process of a creeping crisis.

 "The change" was attractive as long as it could offer a feeling of power. The attitude that influence, positions, resources can be gained through power continues to dominate Bulgarian politics.

 The CC is the more aggressive part of the coalition, as seen from the ordering of the lists, but the parties from the DB  may be very organized in their use of preferences and actually rearrange the lists.

 The war between the two factions in MRF (Movement for Rights and Freedoms) is total and merciless.

 The clash permeates the entire history of the party, reaching its genesis, trying to create a new future for it.

 Ahmed Dogan has a strong influence on the generation that has grown up with his image. Peevski, on the other hand, represents a different generation within the party, which sees him as a chance for political power and the development of party members. He is the organizer, the pragmatist.

 The group of Ahmed Dogan operates under another name - ARF, but the password is Dogan. His name makes the coalition recognizable, it has a more emotional impact on voting attitudes than a rational one.

 So far Dogan has lost a lot. The myth is shattered, his word is broken. In the entire history of the party there hasn't been another case where he requested someone's resignation and it didn't happen. Dogan either underestimated Peevski, or overestimated himself, or both, being misled by his trusted circle.

 But the name "Dogan" still holds a mobilizing power.

 If he loses his name, Dogan will lose everything.

 Dogan's warning about a threatened democracy does not guarantee him the desired support. He is one of the creators of Peevski, his patron. Other political forces stay at a distance, there is no anti-Peevski wave surrounding Dogan's words.

 "Revival" consolidates its followers by focusing a lot of media attention on itself with the draft law for foreign agents - a project that the party is introducing for the fourth time in parliament with the clear understanding that it will not be accepted.

 "Revival " gains from its pro-Russian rhetoric due to the historical and cultural ties, but its growth has a ceiling, as membership in the EU and our belonging to Europe are perceived by the majority of Bulgarians as non-negotiable.

 The dynamic on the left is visible - some individuals leave BSP, while others return. Some parties join the new left coalition, others leave it. "The layers are shifting, but for now the movements are not pushing BSP and its partners up in the electoral rankings - due to the crisis elements on the left and due to the strong competition for the protest vote. In any case, the left coalition is moving in the right direction and is the only possibility to stop the flight of BSP downwards.

 "There is such a people" most often ruins governments and project cabinets, but despite this, it is always in the calculations for a potential coalition. This is due to the fact that it is a populist and flexible formation, regardless of whether such definitions are liked by its leader or not. In some ideas, TISP competes with "Revival" and hinders its growth."

 Trifonov's party is the perpetual suspect for a coalition with GERB, as it promised to "uproot" Borisov and his party, and sideline his opponents from "Change".

 The Ministry of Agriculture can report an intense month, as it is expected that a total of over 200 million leva will be allocated to Bulgarian agriculture.

 In Brussels, the Minister of Agriculture, Georgi Takhov, supported domestic producers by requesting the European Commission to ban the import of eggs from Ukraine to Bulgaria.

 In the second quarter of 2024, the average monthly salary in the country is 2296 leva, which is an increase of 17.3% on an annual basis. Labor productivity, measured by GDP per employed person, has increased by 0.6% for the same period. اUnbalanced mismatch between income and labor productivity is deepening and becomes insurmountable without a change in overall economic policy. 

     Structural imbalance is also deepening - industrial sectors continue to contract, while growth is driven by trade - a model which, as seen from the disastrous experience of other countries, is unsustainable and carries high risks.    

 The analysis was conducted by a team consisting of:

 Tanya Joeva Institute for Strategies and Analyses

 Valeria Veleva Director of the Institute for Strategies and Analyses

 Prof. Daniela Bobeva (economics)
 
 Simeon Nikolov (geopolitics)International observers:

 Dr. Plamen Hristov (Greece)

 Dr. Anton Panchev (Kosovo, Albania)

 Here is the full content of the analysis:

 I. CONCLUSIONS AND FORECASTS

 II.  Internal Dynamics and Key Institutions Before the Start of the Campaign – Crisis in the Democracy Model in the Interim Government After the Elections? President Radev Loses (Only) Control Over Relations with North Macedonia and Provocations from Skopje. Corridor 8 – Outlined. Bulgaria's Portfolio in the New European Commission. National Assembly – Shameful Scenes at the Finale. Government – Intense Month for the Ministry of Agriculture.

 III. Party Dynamics GERB – No Shakes, But Exhausted. BSP – Tension Between Partners. "Revival" – Chance to Win Second Place. MRF– Total and Merciless War. BSP – New Energy from the Left Union. "There Is Such a People" – Populist and Plastic Behavior.

 IV. Personal Elections. Economists: Issues in the Bulgarian economy are increasing, problems in the European economy are structural, social policies are at maximum, the economy becomes more and more unbalanced, inflation perspective - further decrease, demographic decline back in the focus of pre-election debate. The pre-election debate is moving away from the eurozone. Why will it be difficult for the next government?

 V: Geopolitics: upcoming regional war brings changes to nuclear plans of the US and Russia, could change the political game of UN - a new beginning for global cooperation. Immigration control disputes - the iceberg that could sink European Union. Presidential debate in the US - a new phase in the campaign. Turkey at a crossroads - benefits and risks of joining BRICS. African countries - the toys of great powers.

 VI. Regional developments: Greece in critical state as main opposition party SYRIZA struggles. Albania - hopes for opening first negotiation chapters in EU integration process. Kosovo - pressure on Serbian parallel structures continues.

 The full 82-page analysis is only available to subscribers. For contact and subscription information, please call 0878 852 713.