24572 | 4 May 2026 | 16:04

Iliana Yotova is entering the final year of her ten-year term in the Bulgarian presidency, which will most likely serve as the launch for her new presidential campaign

The Institute for Strategies and Analysis (ISA) has published its political analysis of events in Bulgaria, Europe and the world in April 2026 under the title:

ELECTIONS DECIDE THE QUESTION OF POWER IN BULGARIA TRANSFORMATION ON THE RISE

RADEV BECOMES PRIME MINISTER. DEMOLITION OF THE MODEL BEGINS

FIRST MAJOR LOSS FOR GERB. WILL BORISOV STOP THE BLEEDING?

CC-DB IN A PUBLIC FEUD AFTER THE VOTE

PRESIDENT YOTOVA - STARTING A NEW CAMPAIGN

WHAT ECONOMY WILL THE NEW PARLIAMENTARY MAJORITY LEAD TO?

HUNGARY BETWEEN ORBANISM AND CHANGE

We offer you a summary of the MAIN CONCLUSIONS AND FORECASTS:

Bulgarian politics has taken a new direction.

The parliamentary elections on April 19 decisively resolved the question of power. For the first time since 1997, a political party has won a full majority. Now, as back then, this presents an opportunity for a full term and deep changes.

The transformation is already underway. This conclusion is not only imposed by political realities - a consolidated parliament with new faces, a government backed by a majority, resignations in leading parties, etc., but also by the dynamics outside the narrow framework of politics - the resignation of the chief prosecutor, threats against the chief secretary of the Ministry of Interior, and so on.

With a convincing majority, the power will be configured quickly. The first action of the 52nd parliament is expected to be the adoption of the regular budget.

The new government is facing the need to take many unpopular measures, and all those who lost the elections are not likely to easily give up the populism that drove income and social policy in the last five years. In this regard, a "shock therapy" for the populism-inflicted budget is hardly possible, but a gradual fiscal consolidation with a focus on cost-effectiveness would contribute to the financial stability of the country.

In 2025, the trade deficit reached a record high of 9.318 billion euros, while the current account deficit was 6.664 billion euros (5.7% of GDP). As of February this year, the trade deficit has already reached nearly 1.5 billion euros. Imports are increasing, exports are decreasing. Growth in 2026 will range from 0.5% with a pessimistic outlook to 2.5% with a realistic one. A weak increase in the GDP growth rate is expected in the next two years. The postponed wave of new demands for salaries, compensations and subsidies during the interim government will limit the potential for bold fiscal decisions. If the inertia of the model continues and economic growth continues to be driven mainly by domestic consumption through increasing incomes and social spending, inflation will be high, and the increase in budget deficit and current account deficit risk financial and economic stability, as well as entering a spiral of rising debt.

Fast and effective measures to improve the investment climate and support exports could reverse the pessimistic expectations.

Moving forward, accumulated problems in the justice system are also coming to the forefront. The public debate for changes has already begun.

Rumen Radev promised to break down the oligarchic/criminal model and gained a huge vote of confidence to stop the degradation of Bulgarian politics, to normalize and stabilize the political power in the country.  

Radev is not a new face in Bulgarian politics, as he spent nine years at the top of the state. However, during these nine years he consistently built an image as an alternative. Radev is not a new politician, but he imposed the idea that he is a new type of politician.  

The winning party - "Progressive Bulgaria" - is burdened with high expectations and great responsibility against the background of internal challenges - budget, inflation, and rapid changes in the justice system - and against the backdrop of a changing external environment.  

The world is currently in chaos, which obscures the contours of the new international order. This circumstance differentiates the elections of April 19, 1997 and April 19, 2026, whose resemblance is otherwise striking in terms of support - 137 deputies for the UDF back then, 131 for GERB today.

The conclusion is that in the uncertain and insecure situation, the majority placed their bets on a politician who emerged from the military circles, who was in the limelight for nine years as president. This profile - military, with education and knowledge of foreign languages, secured his victory in the presidential elections in 2016. The same profile is now working in his favor after the fragmentation and permanent scandals in the National Assembly.

"Progressive Bulgaria" was given a mandate to restore the dignity of the state and the strength of state institutions, fulfilling Radev's oldest promise, dating back to the summer of 2020: "Out of power, criminals!"
If he fails here, the descent will be very rapid.

Radev will seek quick and visible results, because presidential elections are also coming up in the fall. The candidate recognized by the PB has a chance to win while the wave is there. If it passes, the competition will be difficult.

"Progressive Bulgaria" has taken over the center of Bulgarian politics, while expanding to both the left and the right. It is shaping up to be a typical catch-all party, seeking to win votes from everywhere. The differences that will be projected into the future party, however, may cause disappointments and upheavals.

The geopolitical dynamics characterized by speed and instability, combined with the changing roles of key international players. At a time when the authority of the American president is undermined due to the war in the Middle East, at a time when Europe struggles to gain solid political subjectivity, there is no position more advantageous than that of Radev. And that is, within the alliances we belong to, the Bulgarian point of view must be heard and that Bulgaria stands for peace. Bulgarian voters have given a mandate for foreign policy that protects national interests within the European Union.

Radev will be the critical voice in the European Union, but BULEXIT is off the table.

With the express resignation of Sarafov from the position of interim chief prosecutor, the process of dismantling the model begins.

His withdrawal is delayed because of the impression that he follows the agenda of "Progressive Bulgaria". Moreover, the attempts to remove Sarafov due to a delayed mandate did not yield results.

Acting as if the order comes from politicians is not a good decision. Sarafov is a repeat offender. Ivan Geshev was also removed from the Supreme Judicial Council after a political appeal.

The Prosecution and the judicial bodies should work solely and exclusively based on the law, not political power. This should be the goal and ultimate result of the reform that is expected to be inevitable.

PB's promises are for profound changes: removing the oligarchy from the top of the public power pyramid and from access to public resources, revising key public contracts, establishing assets, bank accounts, and properties of Bulgarian citizens abroad with illegal origins, as well as confiscating assets and property with illegal and unclear origins.

In order for PB to fulfill its campaign promises, investigative and judicial bodies must be operational.

The idea of a presidential republic has its lobby among progressives. However, there are no objective conditions for it, society is not ready for such a drastic change, and political sentiments do not allow for an easy convening of a National Constituent Assembly to discuss a new Constitution.

It can be assumed that supporters of the idea of a presidential republic see its advantages only if Radev is at the helm of the country. But what if he is not? There is no ideal model. Bulgaria has been a parliamentary republic under the current Constitution for 35 years and knows this model very well, which needs to be improved. Mature societies do not allow themselves to start from scratch in difficult times, or even collARFe.

But the mere discussion of the form of government, constitutional changes and dismantling of the current model indicate that Radev plans to establish a "Progressive Bulgaria" as a long-term project, with which he will have a permanent presence in Bulgarian politics.

On both current political divisions/lines, Radev holds positions that are supported by a high percentage of the public. According to the line of status change, it was promised to put an end to the previous model, along the lines of peace-war (East-West, Russia-Ukraine) and promise peace.

From the early parliamentary elections, Bulgaria presents itself to the world with a new business card. That the conflict in Ukraine should be resolved through diplomacy and peaceful negotiations is a position that Radev has been promoting as president since the beginning of the war. The new thing is that now it will enter as a Bulgarian position within the European Union. An end will be put to Bulgaria's divided foreign policy - one at the government level, the other at the presidential level.

A block of Eastern European politicians who are in power and give consistent statements in defense of their countries' interests when they clash with Brussels is being formed. In this block are Babish, Fitzo, and Peter Magyar, whose statements leave no doubt that Orbans's foreign policy line will be continued.

Radev is close to Magyar, but with softer messages, placing Bulgarian position in the context of pan-European decisions.

The possible future membership of PB in one of the pan-European political families will ideologically identify it. But the European elections are far away and he has no reason to rush. The decision will be delayed, which will give him the opportunity to develop as a centrist party, open in different directions and attracting sympathizers with different ideological attitudes. At the same time - as a party that is against everything and everyone. This makes it a magnet for dissatisfied people, but also creates strong opponents for it. At the moment, Radev finds himself between the hammer of the status quo and the anvil of the pro-liberal community, which attacks him fiercely on the issues of Ukraine and Putin.

The campaign PB was leader-centric, the voting with PB's ballot -majoritarian, the party will be leader-driven.

Radev's narrative against the other parties gained him electoral points. In his statements as president, he separated the parties from the people, but now that he has chosen to be the leader of a party himself, he speaks of the "old parties." Obviously, he is separating his own political power from all of them.

For GERB, the elections on April 19, 2026, are a turning point in the party's nearly 20-year history.

For the first time, GERB is facing a long stay in the opposition.

The turning point is the exit to the development of two scenarios. The pessimistic one is to unlock a process of settling accounts, turmoil, abandonment, division, which is a prerequisite for marginalization and loss in local elections.

The optimistic one is for the party to make a sober and realistic assessment of its policies, messages and behavior in recent years, and for the conclusions to be a platform for renewal and mobilization of the structures on a new basis.

By taking full responsibility for the election results, Borisov took an important step towards the recovery of the party.

The CC-DB coalition as a whole lost in the political shootout with Radev, whose confidence grew alongside the increase in support. By triggering mass protests in December 2025, CC-DB threw a token into the machine, but Rumen Radev hit the jackpot.

The latest controversy between CC and DB over parliamentary seats has turned into a public brawl. The coalition's image has been severely tarnished as the debate rages on social media. The story has gradually turned into a circus, with the characters entertaining the audience with their distinctly childish behavior.

MRF has reduced its presence in parliament (from 29 to 20 members), but there are no signs of disintegration within the party. This is due to the sharp and widespread attacks that the party and its leader have been subjected to.

MRF is focusing on its key regions, relying on grassroots work. As a result of this type of clear and focused campaign, an interesting result was achieved in Kardzhali: MRF gained around 18,000 votes, while ARF melted away, becoming a donor to both "Progressive Bulgaria" and MRF. It can be assumed that the electorate of the previous ARF elections - around 29,000 votes, was split between the representatives of their ethnicity on the list of the PB party, and the guarantees for their rights provided by the MRF party.

The radical offers from "Revival" to the voters pushed away the periphery. They can attract the most dissatisfied, the most marginalized, the biggest rebels, but not the realists. The party will maintain its role as a tough political player, provoking "Progressive Bulgaria" with its proposals to self-define, to act, to prove itself.

BSP did not enter the National Assembly and faced dark prospects. But blaming the new leader Krum Zarkov is unfair and dishonest. BSP's chance is in deepening and solidifying the left-wing policy that Zarkov has set. The next test are the local elections next year.

During both of its mandates in "Dondukov" 2, Radev as president and Yotova as vice-president managed to create a sustainable high rating that is not affected by their change in status - Radev becomes a party leader, Yotova takes on the responsibilities of a head of state.

Capitalizing on this approval seems logical. Iliana Yotova is reaching the final stretch of her ten years as a Bulgarian president, which will most likely turn into the start of her new campaign for president.

Throughout the preparation and organization of the presidential elections, the presidency institution played a positive role in voting, defined as the "most honest" in years.

If/when Radev becomes prime minister, for the first time in 10 years, the prime minister and president will look in the same direction. Before the presidential elections, at which we expect Yotova to participate, this new model will be tested. If it works and society approves of it, her chances of being elected are high.

But, rather unexpectedly for her, it turned out that Yotova gave a chance to her competition. The candidacy of Andrey Gurov for head of state is becoming more and more solid.

If Gurov accepts, this will be the second case in which the Bulgarian president opens the way to big politics for a representative of the "urban right" and in a unique way "passes on" his creator. The first case was during Radev's presidency, when interim ministers became Kiril Petkov and Asen Vasilev, who later founded "We Continue the Change" movement after a few months.

The format, content and dynamics of the pre-election campaign for the April 19 vote were determined by "Progressive Bulgaria" as the new influential player. But new as positioning, views and activities was also the interim government of Andrey Gyurov. Connected with the CC-DB as ideas, with President Yotova as a choice, and with Rumen Radev as a determination for influence over the vote trade, it became an independent player, fulfilling its main task - organizing fair and transparent elections.

The Ministry of Interior received good ratings from various directions and institutions, and the Chief Secretary of the Ministry of the Interior Georgi Kandev became a star in the public sphere. The vote on April 19 marked the beginning of a massive resistance against the vote trading, which in Bulgaria had reached epidemic proportions.

The caretaker government of Andrey Gyurov concludes its work with one big plus and one minus. The plus is the organization of the elections, while the minus is the long-term agreement with Ukraine, for which a temporary government does not have the mandate. There is clearly no public consensus on this issue.

Gyurov's mandate - with the positives and negatives, becomes his calling card half a year before the presidential elections.

In terms of the most important macroeconomic indicators, with the exception of inflation, Bulgaria performs better than the EU average, and in some it ranks among the top three.

But the relatively low government debt is growing too fast. The low unemployment rate signals a labor market deficit, where wage growth continues.

The worsening internal and external lack of competitiveness of Bulgarian goods is becoming increasingly clear in the growing trade deficit and current account deficit, which threatens financial stability.

A "shock therapy" for the budget affected by populism is hardly possible, but a gradual fiscal consolidation with a focus on cost efficiency would contribute to the financial stability of the country.

Encouraging investments - both domestic and foreign, and strengthening foreign trade in the face of an unfavorable external environment, is a great challenge, but not impossible due to expected political stability. Fast and effective measures to improve the investment climate and support exports could reverse the pessimistic expectations.

After the collapse of power in Iran did not occur and the country retained its ability to respond to strikes and maintain the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a stalemate emerged. The American president took a step back from his threats to "destroy a civilization" and on April 8th announced an initial two-week ceasefire, which was later extended indefinitely on April 22nd.

The differences between the two sides remain significant. This poses a risk of falling into the "grey zone" of "neither peace nor war", which would create enormous uncertainty for insurers, tankers and logistic companies, exporting countries and energy security in terms of supply security and price predictability for energy resource importers.

Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz is its strongest card and a return to the status quo ante bellum of free navigation is only possible in exchange for major concessions.

The Hungarian elections, similar to the ones in Poland in 2023, were a choice between center-right and authoritarian right. The new Hungarian parliament is the first since 1989 without representation of the left. Владимир Чуков професор по политически наукиMany Hungarians, who usually vote for Social Democrats or liberal and centrist parties, have joined TISA, knowing that it is a right-centrist, neo-conservative party, but with a clear pro-European orientation. TISA is part of the European People's Party family.

Peter Madyar will likely follow a course of moderate return to the European political mainstream, but maintaining distance from the most pro-Ukrainian countries in the EU and maintaining working relationships based on common energy interests with Moscow.

This analysis was prepared by a team consisting of:

Tanya Joeva

Institute for Strategies and Analyses

Valeria Veleva

Director of the Institute for Strategies and Analysis

Daniela Bobeva (economy)

Dr. Mariyan Karagyozov (International Policy)

International observers:

Dr. Plamen Hristov (Greece)

Dr. Anton Panchev (Albania, Kosovo)

Here is the full contents of the analysis:

I. CONCLUSIONS AND FORECASTS

II.PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS AND PARTY DYNAMICS

PB'S CLEAR VICTORY OPENS A NEW PAGE IN BULGARIAN POLITICS
THE EIGHTH VOTE – RESULTS, REACTIONS AND TRENDS
RADEV ASCENDS TO THE POST OF PRIME MINISTER. DISMANTLING OF THE MODEL BEGINS
DID THE CAMPAIGN INFLUENCE THE ELECTION RESULTS?
"PROGRESSIVE BULGARIA" TOOK POWER BEFORE BECOMING A PARTY
FIRST HEAVY LOSS FOR GERB. WILL BORISOV STOP THE Swarming?
PP-DB IN PUBLIC FIGHT AFTER THE VOTE
DPS – CONSOLIDATION PROCESSES UNDERWAY
"REVIVAL" IS THE BIG LOSER FROM RADEV'S APPEARANCE

III. INTERNAL DYNAMICS AND KEY INSTITUTIONS

PRESIDENT IOTOVA – AT THE START OF A NEW CAMPAIGN
THE CARETAKER GOVERNMENT – PROS AND CONS

IV. ECONOMY

WHAT ECONOMY WILL THE NEW PARLIAMENTARY MAJORITY BUILD?
A BEAUTIFUL MACROFRAME, BUT MISLEADING
THE TRADE DEFICIT IS INCREASING AT AN OMINOUS RATE
IS THERE A WAY TO REFUTE THE DARK ECONOMIC FORECASTS?
“SHOCK THERAPY” FOR THE POPULISM-SUFFERED BUDGET IS BARELY POSSIBLE
ANOTHER SCANDAL WITH THE BULGARIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK – WHERE TO GO NOW?

V. INTERNATIONAL POLITICS

THE WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST: REGIONAL DIMENSIONS AND GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS
HUNGARY BETWEEN ORBANISM AND CHANGE

VI.REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

POLITICAL CYCLONE IN GREECE. “NEW DEMOCRACY” – TARGETED BY THE EUROPEAN PROSECUTOR’S OFFICE
ALBANIA – NO PROGRESS IN RELATIONS WITH GREECE
KOSOVO – NEW EARLY PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN JUNE