10191 | 27 May 2025 | 08:11

It is unlikely that the candidate from this bloc will be Borisov, but it is not ruled out: the leader of GERB will keep their choice secret for as long as possible

Daniel Smilov

 Deutsche Welle

 There are now two emerging blocks for the presidential elections.

 One is around GERB and will be supported by "New Beginning". It is unlikely that the candidate for this block will be Borisov, but it is not excluded either: the leader of GERB will keep his choice secret for as long as possible.

 The other major block will consist of eurosceptic candidates. There we will definitely see a chosen candidate of President Radev - most likely the current vice president Yotova.

 It is also very possible that Kostadin Kostadinov will join. The goal of this block will be to reach a second round, where their votes will be consolidated behind the stronger of the two candidates.

 Uniting around a meaningful candidate

 This state of affairs shows that the task of the democratic community is difficult and would have become impossible if it had more than one candidate in the elections. That is why nominating a common, united and strong candidate should be its important goal next year.

 The time until the elections may seem long, but in view of the readiness of the democratic community, it may also prove to be insufficient.

 Therefore, uniting around a meaningful candidate should start as soon as possible. Moreover, entering the election regime is important for the democratic community, as supporting the "Zheliazkov" government due to the eurozone, it risks losing its identity towards GERB and losing its sharpness. So far, this is not reflected in the electoral support for CC-DB, but there is also no visible expansion of potential voters.

 The idea of DSB to have a discussion on a joint candidacy is a good start, especially if the other parties from the coalition CC-DB, as well as other organizations and individuals from the center-right are included in this discussion. Before discussing names (which is ultimately the most important), it is still appropriate to start with principled and substantive questions that will structure future debates:

 It is necessary to expand the electoral base.

 1) Who is included in the "democratic community": The loud name "democratic community" needs to be explained and clarified. As a whole, it is clear that a large part of this concept is covered by representatives and supporters of the CC-DB and some smaller formations in the center-right and liberal spectrum. However, the democratic community is not exclusively party-defined and this allows for outreach to other electorates, as well as to many who are disappointed with the existing parties. In fact, the substantive scope of this concept should include all pro-European supporters of democracy in Bulgaria who believe that corruption is a serious defect that can be eliminated. Pro-Europe and against entrenched corruption in Bulgarian politics and the judicial system - this is the general focus of this segment;

 2) Should there be preliminary elections for a general candidate:

 Primary or preliminary elections are a technology. If the political parties in the democratic community cannot come to an agreement in any other way, preliminary elections are a suitable tool for resolving the dispute. These elections have advantages and disadvantages. The advantage is that the winner of the primary elections will gain electoral momentum and be more recognizable, and will enter the presidential elections as the winner. The downside of pre-election voting is that the campaign may be negative and alienate some voters, ultimately resulting in the loss of votes in the actual elections.

 Additionally, extreme candidates tend to win in primary elections, while centrists are more likely to win in general elections. And most importantly, the early nomination of a candidate will give the opportunity to others to try and discredit him or at least construct their own strategies most efficiently in relation to the opponent. But if the parties of the democratic community fail to agree on a common candidate without prior elections, no matter what their flaws may be, they remain the only sensible option;

 What should the future candidate be like and how should they be chosen

 3) Open or closed primary elections: If a decision is reached for primary elections, it is more sensible for them to be open to all voters rather than internal party members. This is because party members are generally very few in Bulgaria and this would turn the elections into a party activity. It is true that opening up the elections can lead to manipulation by malicious individuals. But the democratic community has the ambition to prove to Bulgarians that electronic voting and other forms of remote voting are applicable in Bulgaria. One open primary election will be a visual demonstration of the applicability of this election technology in the country.

 4) More liberal or more conservative candidate: This is a good question that can be answered within the framework of preliminary elections. Overall, there is no clear and unequivocal answer. Liberal Nicussor Dan won the elections in Romania quite convincingly (though unexpectedly). The conservative wave created by Trump's election in the US is currently with an unclear force, as the policies of the new American administration, to put it mildly, lead to ambiguous reactions. In many countries there is an anti-Trump consolidation that has led to electoral victories (in Canada and elsewhere). Trump's endorsement of the "Alternative for Germany" (AfD) in Germany and of Giorcescu in Romania has raised many European eyebrows. Based on all of this, the democratic community in Bulgaria should be very careful and rather try to go beyond the divisions that Donald Trump brings about, rather than enter into his aggressive and polarizing rhetoric;

 5) Free democracy: Whatever happens, it is clear that the democratic community is the main promoter of liberal democracy in Bulgaria. This term had lost its significance during the transition, as it had become the subject of a huge consensus. But now we need to go back to basics: popular sovereignty and the freedom of people are two foundations, neither of which can be sacrificed. Both must be defended. Therefore, majorities cannot ban freedom of speech, just as they cannot close down or punish universities that do not follow their ideas.

 Even established institutions like Harvard are threatened in the US: in such a situation, the democratic community in Bulgaria has no right to divide and marginalize itself, but must fight fiercely and focused to uphold and preserve free democracy in our country and in Europe.

 A dividing line has already been removed.

 6) The War in Ukraine: It has become clear that Russia does not want the war to end before its complete victory. This victory would include territorial control over a large part of Ukraine (at least four regions) and indirect Russian influence over the internal politics of the country (through disarmament, "denazification", replacement of Zelensky, etc.). It would also involve the withdrawal of NATO from Eastern Europe or its significant weakening. Trump attempted to stop the war under different conditions, but it is clear that he failed. So now there is no choice between supporting Trump (in his attempt to "stop the war") and supporting Ukraine and the EU. In fact, it becomes crystal clear that there are only two positions: support for a Russian victory in Ukraine or support for the defense of an independent Ukraine with the possibility of its membership in the EU, with military guarantees for its existence. It is clear where the US, Europe, and Ukraine stand on this issue. It is clear where Bulgaria stands and the Bulgarian democratic community stands. So Ukraine should not be a dividing line when choosing a single candidate for the community.

 7) European integration: The democratic community has been and should remain a driver of European integration. Bulgaria's entry into the eurozone is not the end of things. The EU itself should become a much tighter union of sovereign states, particularly in the area of defense, which cannot happen without progress in fiscal integration. "The preliminary elections can become a platform for clarifying the candidates' positions on such issues;

 Other strategic goals

 8) Goals beyond joining the eurozone: It is very important to initiate a meaningful debate on Bulgaria's strategic goals after potential membership in the eurozone. Creating technological champions in the Bulgarian economy, reducing inequalities between the capital and the country, attracting specialists and labor to address the demographic crisis, retaining and bringing back Bulgarian youth to Bulgaria, etc. are obvious goals that the democratic community can and should prioritize." And a preliminary campaign can create wide public support for these and similar goals;

   9) Fire-dancing or Orthodoxy: It is not necessary to take sides on this otherwise important issue during the preliminary elections, but it can be used to liven up the atmosphere. After all, there is also room for a sense of humor in politics. As long as we don't reach the point where fire-dancing or beliefs become a mandatory subject in the curriculum.  

 There is no pause in politics. The democratic community also cannot function on pause until Bulgaria is accepted into the eurozone. Nominating a common candidate for the upcoming presidential elections is a good way for this community to be in good political condition. And to be ready for any elections that may come.