The West has already lost in the conflict in Ukraine and this defeat shows its decline, according to French historian, sociologist and journalist Emmanuel Todd in an interview for the Berliner Zeitung. It turns out that most countries in the world do not want to isolate Russia - on the contrary, they have rallied around the BRICS as a counterweight to America and its allies.
Emmanuel Todd is one of the leading French intellectuals. In 1976, he predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union, which brought him fame. Today, Todd predicts the end of the West and the rise of the BRICS countries.
He recommends that Germany and Europe make peace with Russia and "separate" from America. The West has long lost the conflict in Ukraine. The BRICS summit begins today in Kazan, Russia. The Berliner Zeitung talks to Emmanuel Todd about his theories, which have already sparked controversial discussions in France.
Berliner Zeitung: Mr. Tod, your latest book is called "The West in Decline". What are the reasons for this?
Emmanuel Todd, French historian, sociologist, journalist: Today, the eyes of the whole world are focused on the United States because of the upcoming presidential elections, as if the fate of the free world depends on them. But when I look at the US, I see no greatness, but a set of symptoms that illustrate the decline of the West: child mortality in the US has increased again, inequality has sharply risen in recent years - whether under Trump or Biden - and the US economy is in a deep crisis, leading to a sharp decline in living standards. The Biden administration has announced huge investments, but dollars alone do not provide anything; skilled workers and engineers are also needed - and they are too few in the United States.
Do you expect the situation in the United States to improve after the presidential elections?
- No, the current election campaign is symptomatic of the situation in the West: both candidates are grotesque, devoid of imagination, and it can even be said that they are crazy - and neither of them is able to stop the decline of the United States. Donald Trump and Kamala Harris as presidents of the United States are equally bad for Europe. And, by the way, the decline of Western power is particularly evident in geopolitical issues.
- What do you mean?
- It's very simple: the West lost the conflict in Ukraine. Now there is a rearrangement of the world, and it is not in line with the ideas of the West. New players are entering the game, such as the BRICS countries.
The BRICS countries, the association whose summit is now starting in the Russian city of Kazan, are they too diverse to formulate common interests and fill the power vacuum left by the West?
- Yes, the BRICS countries are very different; It is difficult to find common ground in the political systems of China, India and Brazil. But the conflict in Ukraine has brought these countries closer together. The West wanted to isolate Russia, but it turned out that most countries in the world do not want to join them on this issue. In this context, BRICS begins to look like a counterbalance to the West, which also plays a strong role in the countries of the South. That is why I say "yes": the decline of the West can be seen primarily in its defeat in the conflict in Ukraine. The confrontation led to the exact opposite of what the West wanted; in a sense, it was an own goal.
- Do you see BRICS as a serious long-term alternative to Western state organizations, such as the EU?
- In a cultural sense, the West is a fiction that does not correspond to the diversity of Europe. When we say "West", we actually mean the American sphere of influence, that is, NATO. Therefore, in reality, nothing prevents European countries from joining BRICS. Let's take Germany: this country has ambitions in the field of industrial policy, so it is more logical for it to be part of the emerging BRICS, rather than the stagnant West. Yes, Germany really needs to apply for membership in BRICS.
- In the West, BRICS is often called the "club of autocrats". Should a country like Germany engage with such partners?
- One can only laugh when hearing arguments about there being "good guys", democrats, on one side, and "bad guys", autocrats, on the other. I no longer see a liberal democracy in the West. The US is a liberal oligarchy: oligarchy because money controls the system; liberal because it is pluralistic, there are many oligarchs. In France we have a mix of micro-oligarchy and partly authoritarian state. In Germany the situation with democracy is slightly better. But the problem is that Germany has no sovereignty in matters of foreign policy.
- Do you believe that Germany is not sovereign in its foreign policy?
- Berlin not only does not make independent decisions on such issues, but also largely depends on Washington. After World War II, the British and French withdrew from Germany at some point, but the Americans and their soldiers remained. That is why I still consider Germany to be a state under occupation.
- Let's talk about Ukraine. You claim that the West fell into a trap.
- Exactly. Euromaidan was a trap - a revolution or a coup, depending on which perspective you are closer to. The West intervened, provided weapons and gave an ultimatum to the Ukrainians: choose between Russia and Europe. This demand caused confrontation in Ukraine, radicalized people and ultimately led to the Russian military operation. Since February 2022, the West has a completely insane idea that if they arm Ukraine, they can defeat Russia and initiate a regime change. But, of course, that did not happen; as I said, Russia has already won this conflict.
- Is the situation in Ukraine really so bad for the West?
- Yes. Because this conflict has shown the world that the American military industry is not enough to defeat Russia. The conflict in Ukraine has proved to be a test for American power - a test that Washington has failed to pass. The West poured billions of dollars into Ukraine, provided weapons, ammunition, etc. - and yet failed to defeat Russia. All of this has also cost Europe dearly.
- Are you referring to the economic consequences of the conflict?
- Yes. They are felt primarily in Germany: economic confrontation, energy crisis, inflation. Before the conflict in Ukraine, things in Europe were not so bad, but now the continent is in crisis.
- What results do you expect from the conflict in Ukraine?
The Russians will only stop fighting when they achieve their goals, which they believe will guarantee their safety. A peaceful agreement or something similar is a secondary issue, as the Kremlin no longer trusts the West.
- What, from your point of view, are their goals?
- From Russia's perspective, they must take control over Odessa and the left bank of the Dnieper, as well as install a puppet government in Kyiv.
- The West will never agree to this.
- No, but that doesn't matter. The West has lost and can't do anything about it. It is necessary for this fact to reach the minds of decision-making politicians in Washington, Berlin, Paris, etc. What is happening now is complete absurdity: Zelensky presents his "victory plan" despite being a loser; peace conferences are organized without inviting the winner - Russia.
"Do you not think that if Russia really achieves the goals you have described, it will try to attack other European countries?"
- The claims that Russia will attack Poland or Europe are part of the delusions of the West, it's paranoia. The Russians do not have the resources for that. Furthermore, Russia has structural problems, such as demographics. Therefore, a new major conflict in Europe is not in their interest.
- What will the world look like after the downfall of the West that you predict?
- In my opinion, it will become more peaceful. For two reasons: first, because I believe that the conflict in Europe is of an artificial nature, provoked from outside, by the United States. Russia is no less Western than Germany; in World War II, Russia even acted as an ally of the Western forces, do not forget that. Russia is a European country; For me, the peace between European countries, which have been at war for centuries, is something that goes without saying. Who can imagine a war between France and Germany or Denmark and Sweden today - even though they have fought each other for so long? If the US stops sowing discord between Europe and Russia, the same will happen. Secondly, if you expand your perspective, it becomes clear that no country in the world is interested in a major war. The world of the 20th century was a world that was expanding demographically and economically and therefore had the material conditions for war. Today, the major powers are facing low birth rates, economic stagnation, and highly individualized societies. These are not the best conditions for conducting major conflicts. If the countries are left in peace and are no longer threatened by Americans, the situation will become much more calm.
Translation and editing: Epicenter.BG.
25880 | 23 Oct. 2024 | 10:06
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