96274 | 4 Aug. 2024 | 09:47
The West, led by the USA, is facing collapse and the situation in Ukraine proves it, says Emmanuel Todd, the legendary French historian who predicted the fall of the USSR a decade and a half before the event. Today, Todd predicts the death of the West. This is particularly evident in the example of the crisis in Ukraine, he explains. The West demonized Putin for too long and overlooked the fact that Russia has survived, recovered, and developed, notes Todd. He is convinced that the West should not allow a confrontation with China. The interview with author Raphael Sholler was published in the Berliner Zeitung.
- Professor Todd, many people in Germany are concerned about the situation in France, where Marine Le Pen from the right-wing party National Rally could be elected president in 2027. Do you share these concerns?
- No, because I have long considered the elections in France to be a comedy. A country is no longer truly sovereign because it is unable to make its own decisions regarding monetary or trade policies.
- What do you mean?
- All of this is related to the fundamental agreements of the European Union. Important issues such as monetary or trade policies are decided in Brussels, and the French government has no say. That is why the elections in France, as I said, are a comedy. We had a comedy in the style of Sarkozy: a hysterical politician who constantly talked about his wife and wanted to "bring order" to the suburbs. Then the French got tired of it and Hollande appeared, who declared that his enemy was the world of finance, and he himself was an ordinary man. Now we have Macron, who says: "I am young, I like the banking systems, and you are all foolish". In practice, however, nothing has changed: French politics is still defined by financial constraints from Brussels.
- Nevertheless, after the coronavirus and economic and energy crisis, the monetary policy in the EU has changed.
- Rightly so. The euro was invented to turn the French into Germans. Before, if France had too large a trade deficit, the franc would collapse and Paris would have to deal with the problem. Today, France's trade deficit is simply enormous and no one seems to care. This is also due to intra-European geopolitics: Germany allowed the French to go into debt, that is, to do something that is not allowed for the Italians or the Greeks. This is because it is especially important for Germany to keep France calm to ensure stability in Europe.
- Is it working?
- Actually, no, because the French economy has significantly weakened. The impoverishment of the country is also the main reason for Le Pen's success. They always say that Germany is the main patient of Europe, but in reality, France is the sick one.
- However, Macron feels very confident on the international stage, even in the context of the military actions in Ukraine. How is that possible?
- All of Macron's arguments are meaningless. The paradox of this story, however, is that the worse things get for France, the more important its involvement in the conflict in Ukraine becomes. Because we, the West, are in direct conflict with Russia, primarily economically. But this harms Europe more than Russia, and if a country like France is destroyed because of this, then we will not be able to continue in the same spirit.
- The German economy also feels the consequences of the sanctions policy.
- Exactly, Germany is also one of the key players in the story with Ukraine. In the early 2000s, there was a convergence between Europe and Germany, on one hand, and Russia on the other. The fact that Schroeder, Putin, and Chirac presented a united front against the war in Iraq disturbed the Americans. They feared that one of the largest industrial powers in the world - Germany, would unite its forces with one of the largest energy powers in the world - Russia, and to some extent would push America out of Europe. Therefore, from Washington's point of view, Germany was supposed to be separated from Russia. By pressuring Russia to intervene in Ukraine, this was achieved. The explosion of the "Nord Stream" gas pipelines was the icing on the cake.
- Are you not exaggerating by saying that the Russians were pushed to intervene in Ukraine? This sounds like Putin's propaganda.
- The history of events in Ukraine is complex and when I say that Russia was instigated to do this, I am not making value judgments. As a historian, I look at the facts and draw my conclusions. By February 2022, NATO was expanding eastward. Then, with the Maidan, the Americans directly intervened in the affairs of Ukraine. Ukrainian nationalists and part of the American political elite fed into Russophobia and thus partially provoked an irrational dynamic. As a result of this, a situation arose in which NATO de facto started to arm the Ukrainian army up to the Russian border. The Russians said that they cannot accept the fact that Ukraine will become a part of NATO. They warned that in this case they will interfere, which is exactly what happened.
- A few months ago, you made waves with the claim that Ukraine has already lost this conflict. You can also be accused of being close to Putin.
- I deny that. When I say that Ukraine is actually losing this conflict, I am only expressing the opinion of the Pentagon or the French General Staff.
- So territorial concessions will be made in favor of Putin?
- Yes, I believe that the Russians will take a little more territory. So the problem is that we are in a situation where the West knows that it has lost the conflict, but peace is not coming.
- Why?
- The Russians have lost trust in the West. They despise European leaders who are seen as mere puppets of the United States. Therefore, they are not interested in negotiations with Europeans. On the other hand, they view Americans - and here I agree - as completely unreliable and unstable partners. That is why the Russians are no longer interested in signing a treaty with Americans. For them, the end of the operation can only be achieved through a military situation in which their interests are secured and their future safety is guaranteed. I believe they are also waiting for the fall of the regime in Kiev and hoping for a friendly government to replace it. -
- Isn't this a dangerous situation for Europe?
- Everyone in the West understands that Russia has no desire or means to invade Europe. Reasserting control over Poland is the last thing the Russians want. Therefore, Europeans could agree to peace in Ukraine, it would be in their interest. However, it would be harmful for the Americans. If the Russians achieve their goals in Ukraine, America will be defeated by an equal power in the eyes of the world. And this will most likely lead to the collapse of the entire American global system.
- Will Europeans, if it is in their interest, ultimately succeed in separating themselves from the Americans and establishing peace in Ukraine?
- In fact, we are not talking about Europeans, but about Germany, the only country in Europe that is truly important for the Americans. Zbigniew Brzezinski, former security adviser to US President Jimmy Carter, explained this very well. Initially, the US did not want to build an empire, but they were dragged into World War II. As a result, they had to deal with the industrialized forces of Japan and Germany, which are now the pillars of the American electric power system. So now the question is whether Germany will break away from the Americans and stand for peace in Ukraine. It is up to Germany whether the endless war will continue or peace will come. In this sense, Germany must take responsibility as the leading power in Europe. We are all waiting for Berlin to end the tense situation.
- Your latest book is called "The Defeat of the West". Is this what we are experiencing now in Ukraine?
- When I talk about the defeat of the West, I do not mean Russia's victory. For me, Russia is simply stable and capable of subduing part of Ukraine. In recent years, the West has spent so much time labeling Putin as a monster that the recovery of Russia has been neglected. But in reality, the West is experiencing an internal decay, with America at its center.
– In 1976, you predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union based on child mortality rates. Based on what criteria do you believe the decline of the West has now come?
– First of all, I would like to mention that the child mortality rate in Russia today is lower than in the USA, which is extremely important. However, I note the decline of the West on various levels, including the deepest one. Firstly, if we look at not the inflated GDP from the service sector, but the real industrial and agricultural production in the West, we see a huge weakness. Even more concerning are the failures in education, especially in the USA. The level of education there has been declining since 1965, the number of students is decreasing, and tests show that the intelligence quotient is also decreasing. Today in America, they often train lawyers and stockbrokers, rather than engineers. When I was writing my book, I looked at the numbers and discovered that Russia, with half the population, produces more engineers than the United States. Americans rely on foreign engineers, primarily from China or India, which are competitive countries, making the situation for the US very fragile.
- What is the reason for the decline of Western societies?
- The transformation of capitalism into a neoliberal financial capitalism can be traced back to nihilistic impulses. At one point, people begin to irrationally strive to accumulate huge sums of money just to have them. Furthermore, neoliberalism in practice has destroyed the economy and society. Nevertheless, (Margaret) Thatcher herself said that the concept of "society" does not exist, and this is pure nihilism. In foreign policy, this approach is expressed in a preference for war over peace.
- Will this decline lead to Western interference in the next conflict with China?
- This has been talked about all the time. However, I do not believe that the US will interfere in a conflict with China after the loss in Ukraine. They simply do not have the means. A war between China and the United States in the South China Sea would end in a matter of hours. The Chinese would have no problem sinking American aircraft carriers.
- Does this mean that China will replace the US as a global power?
- No, I do not think so. The Chinese have major problems, particularly a catastrophic demographic situation. And they will have to fight with it. I don't know if you can imagine what it's like to have a workforce of 1.4 billion people that is decreasing. The demographic problem in Germany was solved thanks to an efficient immigration policy. But with a population of over a billion people, such a problem cannot be solved simply through immigration. China cannot absorb the whole of Africa. So the future is a world with different poles, which can no longer afford war.
Translation and editing: Epicenter.bg
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