25076 | 5 Jan. 2026 | 16:56

If they had continued to develop, Protests 2025 could have put at risk two key things: GERB's leading role and Borisov's ability to make accurate assessments of the political situation

On January 14, the National Assembly will resume its work, and the extraordinary parliamentary elections will most likely be held at the end of March. Before the start of the hot political season, we offer an overview of the parties' activities in 2025 and a forecast for 2026, prepared by the Institute for Strategies and Analyses (ISA). The conclusions of the ISA were made throughout the past year. We remind them with a focus on expected developments during the new political cycle. We begin the publications with the leading political force - GERB.

 With the resignation of the government requested in December, GERB leader Boyko Borisov has maintained the party's chances of remaining a factor in Bulgarian politics.

 Let us remind you - the protests during the summer of 2020 eroded trust in GERB, with a permanent loss of votes of around 500,000. In the series of early elections since then, the party has maintained a level of 650,000 votes, which, given the fragmentation of the party system, guarantees it first place in sociological ratings and consequently - in elections.

 What could be the consequences of the escalating dissatisfaction in the winter of 2025 if the "Zhelyazkov" cabinet had not resigned?

 If they had continued to develop, the Protests 2025 could have jeopardized two key things: the leading role of GERB and Borisov's ability to make accurate judgments about the political situation.

 With the resignation of "Zhelyazkov", created during the mandate of GERB, a one-year political process came to an end, marked by the following fact: this was the first government with a mandate from the party in which Boyko Borisov was not prime minister. According to ISAs analysis, a number of peculiarities in the development process have emerged, which have also affected the party.

 We recall key moments of the political dynamics directly related to GERB:|

 With the formation of the "Zhelyazkov" government, the Boyko Borisov party came out of isolation. This was the first government with its mandate since the beginning of the crisis in 2020. Borisov himself remained on the sidelines, despite his repeated promises after the nomination of Rosen Zhelyazkov that he was the most prepared. The key moment: GERB proved that it has regained its ability to attract coalition partners.

 Borisov expressed visible discomfort at not being prime minister. As early as March, he emotionally stated that he would not help Rosen Zhelyazkov by securing a majority in the National Assembly. The conclusion of ISA then was that Borisov had to overcome his ego in order to give a chance to the "Zheliazkov" cabinet. GERB's leader also said, "I will allow them to climb on my back until we enter the Eurozone. After that, you will see my and my party's reaction. (...) GERB bears the biggest responsibility, but for us, governance is not at any cost. Therefore, let it be clear - we will not take on other people's faults."

 The conclusion of ISA then was that the government failed to work at a sustainable pace, and one of the reasons was the import of instability caused by Borisov's statements.

 It is undeniable that entering the Eurozone is a success for GERB, which the party did not have in its portfolio. However, they were unable to enjoy their success as on the same day, the mayor of Varna, Blagomir Kotshev, was arrested. Borisov commented on the event, saying: "I really don't understand why this moment was chosen. When the whole of Europe was congratulating us, someone put a spoonful of tar in our honey jar."

 Regarding the crisis with the shortage of water in a number of places, Borisov made a serious remark to Zhelyazkov, which can be summed up as "if I were the Prime Minister, the problem would have been solved."

 His words clearly indicate that: Borisov likes to have a choice, not to feel like a hostage, not to appear pressed. With his comment to Zhelyazkov, he demonstrates that he has power and that his word carries weight, despite not being the Prime Minister. If the cabinet faces negativity, whenever the parliamentary elections may be, Borisov will participate in them without bearing the burden of the government's sins, as he has managed to distance himself. This is a conclusion that is one hundred percent confirmed.

 In September, Borisov sent a very clear signal to everyone by not participating in the vote of no confidence, which means he did not support the government. The conclusion of ISA was as follows: The leader of the party and the mandate holder's non-participation is a sign of his discomfort with his position and his distance from the GERB-led government. His decision can be interpreted as a rejection of one hundred percent support for a coalition cabinet formed almost against his will. As distancing from "Zhelyazkov", as opening the door to a new configuration, reformatting or even early elections.

 Borisov also spoke about the party as if it was rented out, and in response to Delian Peevski's comments ("I am the guarantor") he emotionally stated: "The government belongs to Bulgaria. It does not belong to GERB, it does not belong to Peevski, it does not belong to ITN, it does not belong to BSP, but it is very difficult to put together. None of us has the right to say "I", "I am the guarantor", "it depends on me", because each of us can say it. This is how the whole political system in our country is currently constructed, that we are not self-sufficient. "Without GERB, a government could not be formed, that's why we are sitting with them, because I cannot think of anything better."

 This is how Borisov affirmed his tone in all directions, including towards the government, the opposition party CC-DB, and the president ("I do not have a president, I have a party leader who uses every event to speak against the government.").

 In October, the following conclusion was drawn: The local elections in Pazardzhik became a turning point in the political process. The results showed a rise of MRF and a decline of GERB, while the other political forces performed within expectations. MRF was the first force with 17.13%, followed by CC-DB with 11.75%, followed by PP"Freedom" with 10.345%, BSP with 7.42%, VMRO-BND with 6.84% and GERB in sixth place with 6.16%. Translated into the overall political situation, the trend was interpreted as an indicator of the growing power of MRF with leader Delyan Peevski, which shook all his opponents from CC-DB to the president. The result was perceived as a risk by GERB leader Boyko Borisov.

 After a very angry public monologue, Borisov sent his MPs to their constituencies to see how much had been "devoured" by the party (according to the words of Ivaylo Mirchev, which the GERB leader saw as a big mockery and ridicule).

 The conclusion of the ISS was: Borisov realized that the party was suffering damage, reflected in the votes it receives in elections. This is happening for the first time since taking office with its full mandate. Usually the negatives go towards coalition partners. In other words, the situation is turning against GERB.

 The excitement from the results in Pazardzhik was still dampened and on October 22, after a meeting between the leaderships of the parliamentary groups of GERB-UDF and MRF- NEW BEGINNING, it was announced that an agreement for a full mandate has been reached; that the current form of support will not change; that MRF- NEW BEGINNING refuses to participate in the executive power, as well as in the leaderships of the parliamentary committees.

 The November protests, triggered by the budget draft, provoked a decisive intervention by Borisov, and in December the government resigned. It was a mistake that the promise to withdraw the budget draft was not kept. It was right to resign when the protests escalated with a demand for the government to step down. The dissatisfaction was difficult to contain.

 And more CONCLUSIONS: Borisov is a situational player, adaptable, with an instinct to survive. The latest evidence is the requested resignation of the cabinet in December. The tension in the relationship between the leaders and the development of the political process clearly indicated that a solution in this direction is possible - the withdrawal of the cabinet and new elections. The appearance of only Denitsa Sacheva at the consultations with President Radev was an important sign that the relationship between GERB and Borisov with Radev is tense and will continue to develop in a confrontational mode. In other words, Radev's project is recognized as a political opponent even before it has appeared. Obviously, if this happens, GERB is striving to maintain the pro-European niche for itself, leaving Radev as the only one who can compete with "Reformist Bloc". In other words, he is trying to limit the scope of his activities.

 This conclusion is further supported by Boyko Borisov's latest interview (2 January, "Voices"). The conversation leaves no doubt that Borisov and his party will continue to follow a pro-European line, albeit with some key reservations that primarily concern Washington. The party leader was crystal clear about the difference in the relationships with the United States and Europe: We are dependent on Brussels, while we are partners with the US. As for the rest, he emphasized, we have pragmatic relationships that protect us. He also firmly maintained Brussels' stance that Putin is an aggressor, entering a foreign country. However, emphasizing repeatedly that the best for Bulgaria and the world is to have peace.

 Borisov's interview was an unofficial start of the campaign, which he and GERB will lead for the upcoming elections. Its silhouette and main goals are clearly outlined. One of its pillars is the achievements of Borisov's terms as prime minister: - controlling migration, which made Bulgaria a peaceful country; "green deal" and preserving coal capacity; a stop to gender ideology in schools despite overall tolerance towards "dissenters";

 - Bulgaria is no longer the poorest country in the EU. "We Outpace Greece, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia and Lithuania in Purchasing Power;

 - Since the emergence of GERB on the political scene, the power for business and citizens as a measure of GDP has increased four times;

 - To date, citizens can once again be reassured as the fiscal reserve stands at 20 billion leva;

 - In the last 11 months, during our governance, GERB has made no mistakes;
 

 - GERB is the party that led our country into the Schengen zone and the Eurozone - achievements that are highly valued by young Bulgarians. Joining the Eurozone makes people "proud".

 In regard to President Radev, the leader of GERB issued a warning that if he enters the political arena, he will have to take responsibility." The reasons for the resignation of the cabinet were cited as arrogance and lack of measure ("everyone went too far"). From the listed reasons, Borisov drew the following conclusion: "Bulgarians will make a mistake if they do not support us now. And in a few years, they will support us again".

 ISA's conclusions: Borisov's decision to give a two-hour interview immediately after the Christmas and New Year holidays is unconventional and bold. During the political break, it became a hot topic and was literally torn apart on social media - whether with a positive or negative connotation, everyone was talking about it. Borisov, without explicitly stating it, implied that the ambition of GERB is once again to be the number one force in Bulgaria. In the new season, GERB enters with the asset that within its mandate, we have entered the club of the wealthy. GERB remains a party of balances, curtsying to both the EU and Trump.

 In short: Borisov strengthens GERB towards victory in the upcoming elections, leaving open possibilities for his party to form coalitions in different directions, while waiting for global events. Now it's up to the others after him.