61006 | 14 May 2026 | 15:57

The current head of state will strive for victory in the first round. For GERB there are two options: to search for a strong figure of their own or to refrain from their own candidacy by supporting a competitor of Yotova, who is gaining strength

Five to six months before the presidential elections, there are only speculations surrounding them.

 - Will Iliyana Yotova run and will "Progressive Bulgaria" support her? Will this support be enough for a convincing victory?
- Will former interim Prime Minister Andrey Gyurov be the joint candidate of the CC and DB, who are seeking a remake of the 1996 elections? - Is the leader of "Revival" Kostadin Kostadinov still tempted to attack the post after the appearance of the PB, which is competing with him in the patriotic niche? - Will GERB-UDF find a candidate to bring back the presidential post lost for a long time after the mandate of Rosen Plevneliev?

 And these are just some of the main questions, and the time until the vote is short, very short.

 The other day, Anton Kutev ("Progressive Bulgaria") finally lifted the veil, explaining that the current head of state, Iliana Yotova, is a logical candidate for a regular mandate. The decision whether the BSP will back her will be made by the party's collective bodies after its establishment, said Kutev.

 Thus, with a high degree of probability, it can be predicted that Yotova will be a sure participant in the upcoming race with strong competitors. In her nine years as vice president, she has not been involved in scandals and the communication between her and the head of state was evidently on a good level. Something that rarely happens in the new history of the presidential institution. - Yotova has a great experience in both domestic and international politics, standing well on both political scenes. - After taking over from Rumen Radev, she proves herself every day as a head of state and this is the real start of her campaign, which will propel her upwards. - As a political figure previously associated with the Bulgarian Socialist Party, Yotova will attract left-wing votes, but also centrists - a niche that is increasingly occupied by PB.

 Kutev's words already weave intrigue about the upcoming race, to which a hypothesis and a hint have been added in the last month.

 Andrey Gyurov as Petar Stoyanov?

 The hypothesis is that Andrey Gyurov, whose caretaker government managed to organize fair elections with determination and will, will capitalize on his rating. It is true that the credit for the vote belongs to figures like the Chief Secretary of the Ministry of Interior Georgi Kandev and the Minister of Interior Emil Dechev, but Gyurov also deserves part of the glory.

 It is also true that with the signing of the 10-year agreement with Ukraine, the acting Prime Minister became a favorite of the so-called "urban right-wing", whose political representatives are CC and DB. Gyurov's chances of being their joint nomination are high. Furthermore, the first push for the presidential elections came from this segment, as the right-wing, too ambitious, have declared their wish for a strong candidate to repeat the success of former president (1997-2002) Petar Stoyanov. His victory in 1996, let us remember, came after the unification of reformist forces with a majority of the BSP in parliament, and his success provoked the end of "Videnov". Will Andrey Gurov repeat the accomplishment of Petar Stoyanov? At least that was the idea of the CC-DB before the hyphen disappeared. In other words, before they split up. Now they will need a lot more compromises and stronger will to nominate a common candidate with chances for success.

 Is Prof. Daniel Valtchev joining the race for victory?

 The hint came from Prof. Daniel Vulchev, who claims that the NSDV of Gurov is actually a partner of GERB. Daniel Valchev now dean of the Faculty of Law at Sofia University. In an interview for BNR he said the following: "I am open to the idea of running for president, but I think there will be good candidates and it probably won't be necessary, but for me this topic is not closed."

 Prof. Valchev assumes that there will be good candidates, but twice he gives a sign that (this time) he has agreed to participate in the competition by saying: "I am open" and "this topic is not closed." And he is a man who will not enter the game just to participate, he will enter to win.

 Prof. Valchev may jump into the race, raised by the Initiative Committee, and his candidacy is serious - experience in power, academic career, good communication, broad horizons. In short – it has the potential to gather supporters from a wide spectrum with a focus on center-right. It could prove to be a strong competitor to Yotova and Gyurov, especially if it is recognized by an influential party. For example - GERB.

 GERB's moves - do they have a candidate or will they remain passive this time?

 What moves Boyko Borisov could take is an important question, as the hits that the party has suffered so far have actually brought them together. GERB and Borisov have lost both votes and status, which could motivate them.
 

 However, participating with their own candidacy would be risky. First, the "Radev" wave has not passed, second, this could be their third loss in presidential elections after Tsetska Tsacheva (2016) and Anastas Gerdzhikov (2021).

 GERB needs to consider the option of remaining passive this time. This is not the ideal option, but a tactical move that would give them time for introspection, reorganization and (re)prioritization. There is also a second possible move - to participate in a foreign victory, but not with a candidate supported by Radev. A candidate with a right-wing profile, which does not conflict with the beliefs of party members and sympathizers. Could this be Andrei Gurov? Most likely not.

 Could it be Prof. Valchev? Most likely yes.

 The victory in the first round - depends on MRF.

 The enigma in this puzzle is the behavior of MRF, who are unlikely to have their own candidate, but have votes. In the latest parliamentary elections, there were only 230,693 votes, but in a presidential campaign they will not be less than 300-350 thousand.

 If the leader of "Awakening", Kostadin Kostadinov, also joins the race, a difficult competition is emerging for Iliana Yotova. Kostadinov will surely divert votes towards himself, which would have otherwise gone to Radev's candidate. And a second round, which is likely, carries risks.
 

 Yotova's goal is to win in the first round, but the votes of "Progressive Bulgaria" will not be enough for such a decisive victory. Who else will support her against her competitors is still an open question, the answer to which depends on the names of the candidates, their courage, the next steps of the ruling party, and why not also the candidates for vice president?