41902 | 14 Dec. 2025 | 19:32

President Radev will have missed another opportunity if he carries out his project after the end of his term. If he wants to succeed in the political field, he must take some risk. A risk that voters interpret as courage. Radev is on the move

 Following the resignation of the government of Rosen Zhelyazkov, Bulgaria quickly heads towards early elections.

 How the next parliament will look is a question that is currently uncertain. The murky picture is yet to be clarified, but one question that gives clues now is who won and who lost from the developments of the turbulent events - anger, protests, resignation, and a course towards new elections.

 The big losers seem to be the small partners.

 The consequences for "There Is Such a People" will be colossal, regardless of whether their black prophecies of upcoming chaos come true. The history of TISP is short but filled with contradictions and turns that not only decreased their number of voters but also repelled citizens. It is enough to remember two or three of the shocking metamorphoses the showmen made. A referendum was organized, which was on the brink of legitimacy. The poll was held together with the 2016 presidential elections. The same elections that Radev won, and Borisov found his victory a good enough reason to resign. In other words, the wave of anti-GERB was very strong, and Slavi Trifonov had many supporters. Did he create a party? No. In 2021, the party finally became a reality and won the elections. Did he form a government? No. Later, he entered the first ruling coalition in which GERB was not involved, and this coalition formed the cabinet of Kiril Petkov. Did TISP attempt to "shake off" GERB, as promised? No. It did the opposite - it brought down the government. Did TISP claim that it would not participate in a government where Delian Peevski has influence/participation? It did. Did they participate? Yes.

 Furthermore - now, when this government has resigned, the drama is immense. There is no more humor, irony, hints, jokes, teasing. Chaos has come, chaos! The guilty ones will, of course, be others, not the people of Trifonov, who have gained tragic fame - with their disrespectful and offensive attitude towards young doctors, with the record of 29 seconds with which the amendment for the special commercial manager of "Lukoil" was approved in the committee.

 From a project that focused on high expectations for moral values and changing the model, TISP became a pillar of the status quo and a consumer of power. And most importantly - the circle around Trifonov imposed the chalga culture, Trifonov's party - chalga politics. Well, the protests in December 2025 said "no" to this policy. BSP is also in an unenviable position, having lost its political subjectivity during its governance.

 The party easily swallowed the introduction of a rotational presidency of the National Assembly, after Borisov, in his angry monologue after the elections in Pazardzhik, inserted the plot that Kiselova was attending holidays and stadiums without asking. Or more precisely: "Kiselova, wherever she sees a rose, a strawberry, a cherry, a plum, a lettuce - goes there to show off." "Where can it be, if there is a match, if there is something volleyball... it's a miracle. Nineteen deputies or however many are behind his back. From where to where?". Is the attitude towards the chairman of the leading institution offensive? Yes. Did the leadership of BSP ask for an apology from Borisov? 

 No. Did Kiselova become a sacrifice? Yes. Is there a chance for a caretaker prime minister now? No, there is not. BSP explained that they participated and supported the government in order to have stability. Now they have to analyze why their supporters were backing the protests against the government. Do they not want stability in the country?

 A round MRF- NEW BEGINNING, there will continue to be high tension. There has never been a direct connection between electoral support for MRF and protests/dissatisfaction/failures during the transition years. The party may not lose sympathizers, but with a higher voter turnout, its weight will decrease. And it is beyond doubt that the entire pre-election campaign of the current opposition will revolve around the denial of Peevski. "When the cat is away, the mice will play" is a hit among the young now. What move Peevski will make remains to be seen.

 GERB is on the brink. With their decision to resign, Boyko Borisov has a better chance of preserving the party and performing well in the early elections. After the protests in the summer of 2020, the party lost half a million votes. In the last elections, there was a sense of nostalgia for stability within the party, but the ballots cast for it were around 650,000. A miracle would have to happen for there to be an increase in voter turnout in 2026.

 In short - the parties that supported "Zhelyazkov" are losing more or less, but it will be difficult for them to win.

 One million voters are looking for their party.

 However, starting from 2020, the activity in elections has been decreasing, reaching 2,570,629 in the last parliamentary vote. According to initial forecasts, 3.5 million are expected to participate in the early elections next year. Or one million more.

 The expectations for high voter turnout are justified for several reasons. Firstly, citizens have gained confidence and assurance that through their activity - outside of social media! - they can change the situation by defending their interests and rights.

 Secondly, for the youth, the protests have become fashionable and prestigious. The same is expected to happen with the voting, as the campaign in this direction is already underway.

 Thirdly, the stakes have been raised and are likely to continue to grow along the key lines - status quo-change, East-West, Brussels-Washington, liberalism-conservatism. Where will this one million go and will it change the picture in parliament? From there - and the Bulgarian politics.

 Higher voter turnout raises the bar for parliament. 100,000 votes will no longer be enough to enter the National Assembly. With a higher bar and a downward trend for the parties in the last coalition, some may not find a place in the National Assembly. From here - either there will be fewer parties in the National Assembly, or others will take their place. Both options will give the National Assembly a new form with new priorities. It is very unlikely that one political force will win the entire jackpot of one million votes. It is more likely that these votes will be dispersed in different directions and towards political forces with different profiles.

 Why do 121 mandates for CC-DB seem like a mirage?

 If the party of President Radev does not enter the game this time, the winners seem to be CC-DB, but a majority of 121 deputies is excluded at this stage. At the moment, the coalition has 36 representatives. For there to be a majority on the edge of 121, CC-DB must triple its results and add at least 13 more. Triple! If it brings back its voters who voted for CC and DB in November 2021 when the two forces were not in a coalition, the two would have a total of just over 840,000 votes, or not enough for a majority.

 Over 800,000 votes would be a great result, but that was before the "coalition", before the war in Ukraine, before the Euro and before "Revival" started to rise. In 2021, the Kostadinov party had 121,108 votes, and in 2024 they have already increased to 325,466. By February-March, the inevitable negative effects of introducing the Euro, known from the experience of other countries, will already be evident. Anti-Euro forces like "Revival" could gain even more supporters at this very moment.

 Is Radev heating up on the party field?

 There is little time until the elections and the appearance of new parties is risky, as the selection of candidates will be made quickly. In a party of young people, for example, there may be charismatic individuals, but it could also be filled with careerists. If several editions of Lexi Fljor are presented, the older generations will raise their eyebrows in amazement.

 However, if Radev's political project comes onto the scene, parliamentary representation will change significantly. Nikolay Denkov's prediction that the presidential party will fail seems to be wrong. Denkov makes the mistake of his opponents from previous governments by accepting what he desires as reality. He believes that the rosy expectations of his sympathizers or flattery from his close ones are already facts. The left niche, where voters with pro-Russian or pro-European, but not pro-Ukrainian sympathies are, is free. "BSP supporters are now looking towards the project with hope for its realization.

 Radev missed a golden opportunity in the summer of 2020 when his profile was very clean - a fighter against the "Borisov" model and against corruption. There was no Russia, no Ukraine, and even no Trump.

 If Radev implements his project after the end of his term, he will have missed yet another opportunity. If he comes out now, it will win him the image of a politician who sacrifices the highest position in the country to serve the citizens. One who does not wait for geopolitical developments to come out and declare their support for the winner.

 In other words, if Rumen Radev wants to have success on the party front, he must take some risk. A risk that voters may interpret as courage. He is on the move."