Ukraine appears to be slowly losing its war against Russia and has only a few months to make decisions that could change the course of the conflict, former Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said. He said the country still had “every chance” to win, but urgently needed a plan to end the war.

Fedorov, a young reformer whose dismissal last month triggered weeks of protests, said Ukraine lacked a comprehensive vision for winning the four-year conflict. He said the country was also being held back by its inability to introduce innovations quickly enough.

“Entrenched corruption and clientelist networks, as well as the lack of political independence of state institutions, are also hindering the country’s development,” he said. Fedorov described the present as a turning point that would determine Ukraine’s future direction, but added that the country appeared to be “gradually and slowly losing.”

The Ukrainian presidential office responded that Fedorov had spoken positively about the conduct of the war while he was in the ministry. It said the only thing that had changed was his personal status.

Russia fires dozens of ballistic missiles at Ukrainian factories and warehouses each month. Ukraine is usually unable to intercept them because its stocks of interceptor missiles have been depleted. Although Russia is taking less territory than last year, its forces are still making slow advances in Donbas. Ukraine’s sparse infantry positions along the front are staffed mainly by unmotivated conscripts.

Ukraine, meanwhile, has intensified drone and missile attacks deep inside Russian territory. Some strikes have hit key military factories, seriously damaged oil refineries and caused fuel shortages across the country.

A poll conducted at the end of July found that 82% of Ukrainians believed Ukraine would win. Most respondents nevertheless expected the fighting to continue into 2027 or even longer.

Fedorov, 35, was dismissed six months after taking office. He had begun reforms in public procurement and mobilisation, bringing him into conflict with military leaders and political rivals.

Last week, Fedorov became the first prominent political figure to call for elections during the war. He described the state of governance as a “systemic” crisis. The call was met with disapproval, while opinion polls have consistently shown low support for holding elections during the conflict.

President Volodymyr Zelensky condemned the proposal, saying elections could destroy Ukraine while it was fighting Russia. Martial law has been in force since Russia’s invasion in February 2022 and prohibits elections on security grounds. Zelensky suggested that Fedorov might have been encouraged by outside forces, an allegation the former minister firmly denied.

Fedorov stressed the importance of developing autonomous drones controlled by artificial intelligence, inexpensive interceptor missiles and a Ukrainian ballistic-missile programme. Ukrainian manufacturers are already working on these technologies, he said, but the country needs a unified strategy to achieve their full effect.

He envisaged a front line covered by electronic sensors to detect the enemy, along with ground and aerial drones, reducing the need for people on the battlefield. “The technologies that can completely stop the Russians already exist, but our lack of a clear vision means we are not applying them,” Fedorov said.

The former minister claimed he had been a driving force behind this year’s drone campaign against Russian fuel resources and military logistics in the Russian-occupied parts of southern Ukraine. He said the attacks had created problems for Russian forces at the front.

Fedorov said there was still a window of several months to continue the operation and isolate Crimea, which is occupied by Russia, before Moscow found a way to counter Ukraine’s tactics. The strike campaign had been an important factor in changing assessments of Ukraine’s prospects in the war.

Despite the enormous logistical difficulties of holding elections during wartime, Fedorov said Ukraine would find innovative solutions. He has not yet said whether he will run for president. For now, he plans to divide his time between efforts to restore the electoral process and initiatives involving military technologies, including an investment fund for which he plans to raise capital during an upcoming trip to the United States.