Emma Shortis, The Conversation The author is a senior researcher at RMIT University and non-governmental organization The Australia Institute The shots fired against Donald Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday are being investigated as an attempted assassination of the former president and current Republican candidate for president. Attempts to assassinate presidents and presidential candidates have been a part of American history. What happened in Pennsylvania is horrifying, but unfortunately not surprising. I was truly shocked by how many high-ranking political figures in the United States stated after the shooting that political violence has no place in America. US President Joe Biden said that this kind of violence is "unprecedented" in the USA. This is quite striking. The USA was founded on political violence and cases of political violence are present throughout its history. In fact, Biden began his political career by presenting himself as the political heir of the Kennedy brothers - President John F. Kennedy, who was killed in 1963, and Robert F. Kennedy, who was killed in 1968. However, it is deeply concerning for this incident to happen at this moment, given the unstable nature of the presidential campaign so far and the deep divisions in the USA. The way in which the shooting has so quickly turned into a weapon on social media - with conspiratorial theories developing in real time - means that the potential for escalation of this type of violence is very high. Just look at the Capitol riot on January 6, 2021 to see how quickly political violence can erupt in the US. This is due, at least partly, to the deliberate cultivation of violent rhetoric by elements of the far right in recent years. In particular, subversive currents of political violence have been felt at Trump's rallies since the beginning of his first presidential candidacy in 2016. The threat of violence has become central to Trump's political image, his appeal, and his base of supporters. You only need to watch a few moments of any Trump rally or listen to any Trump speech to hear him talking about violence, often with graphic details and great pleasure. For instance, he repeatedly cites conspiracy theories when describing the attack on Paul - the husband of former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, in their home in 2022, while also mocking and joking about the attack. This is a trait, not a mistake, of the campaign of Trump and the movement behind him. And it has real-world effects. A nationwide review by ABC News in 2020 identified 54 criminal cases in which Trump himself was involved due to "direct links to violent actions, threats of violence, or claims of assault". Just a few weeks ago, Kevin Roberts, president of the right-wing think tank Heritage Foundation (the architect of the Project 2025 plan to reevaluate governance in the second Trump presidency), spoke about a "second American revolution" that "will remain bloodless, if the left allows it". Given how persistent this threat of violence has become, it's perhaps surprising that such a large-scale incident hasn't occurred more often or hasn't happened at all. It's also remarkable what a master of political image Trump is. You can see this in the footage from the shooting in Pennsylvania: after Trump stands up, he raises a challenging fist, creating that image. This image, of course, will define the specific moment, if not the entire Trump presidential campaign. So far, there have been a series of turning points in this campaign and this one could prove to be decisive. This could turn Trump from a martyr to a saint in the eyes of his supporters.   Monitoring how Trump, his campaign, and the people around him are using this narrative will be crucial, especially before the Republican National Convention, which is set to take place in Wisconsin in the coming days. You can already see elements from the right - especially among Trump's supporters - trying to use the assassination attempt to promote conspiracy theories and mobilize around the former president. Considering the consequences of Biden's performance in the debate over the past weeks, an image of a dramatic contrast between the two candidates emerges, and this contrast may be solidified even further - even if it does not accurately reflect who they are as people and leaders. This image of Trump, bloodied with a raised fist, can certainly become the frame of his entire campaign and gather support behind him. It is therefore entirely possible that this could be the moment when Trump wins the election.