62145 | 6 Aug. 2025 | 16:10

If the left candidate wins - this will be the third victory for Radev over Borisov! Populism, with which Radev jumps against the executive power, will be his main weapon in the vote. And on this terrain, the most people can be deceived

The presidential elections in Bulgaria are in 14 months, but comments about possible nominations have already begun.

 This is not surprising, as the presidential vote in October 2026 will be crucial for the country's future development.

 The two destructive mandates of Rumen Radev showed that consequences with lasting impact can arise from the actions of the presidential institution. Here, I will only mention three facts in this regard, which bear the stamp of Radev and have proven to be fateful for Bulgarian society, politics, and economy: the imposition of "charlatans" in power, the energy agreement with "Botaş," and the dramatic division of the Bulgarian nation. With these undeniable mistakes, Radev will leave "Dondoukov" 2 after a year and a half, to ring the bell that as a society we do not have the right to make the mistake we made in 2016 with his election.

 THE SITUATION IS DIFFICULT

 The 2026 presidential elections will take place in a much more complex and difficult situation than before. Firstly, the Bulgarian state is going through a turbulent period with the introduction of the euro, which will undoubtedly have a social cost. Pro-Russian, eurosceptic, and nationalist formations, as well as the president, will take advantage of all the negative phenomena in the transition between the two currencies.

 Secondly, the Bulgarian state has been heavily hit in the last four years with a series of elections and interim governments, which have led to the devastation of institutions, ineffective administration, and lack of trust from the citizens. There are now talks about a risk to democracy.

 Thirdly, the Bulgarian party system has literally been shot down - the main parties have shrunk to their hard cores; the left is experiencing a split; the right is marginalized; populist formations are on the rise, battling each other.

 Fourth, there is a strong citizen disappointment that did not see results from the protesting energy invested 5 years ago, but instead experienced the consequences of the "coalition". The` declared opposition is parasitic on the back of power, losing real positions and influence.

 Fifth, Bulgaria lacks strong and authoritative leadership. There are three leading figures in the country at the moment, who are crucial for the processes, power and stability: Borisov, Peevski and Radev. They will also decide the equation for the next presidential elections.

 The Winning Candidate for President is Being Sought
 

 The three will form both main camps in the autumn battle of 2026 - the pro-European right-wing candidate for head of state and the pro-European left-wing candidate.

 In both cases, the winning candidate would be the one who can attract a wide periphery - a figure with authority, social weight, charisma and charm. Bulgaria is so divided and frozen that it needs to be made to fall in love with its future president, to be calmed down, to quell the aggression and destructive energy that is destroying us.

 The task seems almost impossible.  Who will be these "magicians" who will tame their calmness in order to enter a fierce battle and carry it out successfully? The equation is not just one of increased difficulty, but one of extreme challenge.

 During the morning block of BTV, sociologist Purvan Simeonov presented the idea that it is possible for Delyan Peevski to come forward with his own candidate, who could even make it to the second round of elections against the GERB candidate. This is so absurd and I am surprised that a sociologist like Simeonov would suggest such "mud," because the only viable candidate who would have a chance at success is the one proposed by GERB and supported by Peevski from the very beginning.

 The leader of the MRF would not play with his own candidate if he did not intend to win. The MRF would not put forth a person to stand against GERB. It makes no sense for Peevski to go against Borisov. Peevski is strong, if Borisov is strong. And vice versa! Purvan Simeonov is well aware of this.

 For Peevski, the 2026 presidential elections are the first, after he officially took over MRF and in this sense, he is obliged to calculate his first electoral success. MRF is growing rapidly and is seeking to become an influential centrist formation with its own weight of power. A potential loss of the GERB candidate, if supported by Peevski, would also be his loss. "And I am not used to losing," says the leader of NEW BEGINNING.

 It is clear that Peevski holds the key to the presidential vote, but he will only use it for a guaranteed victory.

 This makes for a very intricate puzzle for Boyko Borisov. A potential third loss in the presidential vote would have catastrophic consequences for him as a party leader, for GERB as a party and for the GERB government. And for the country as a whole. These elections are crucial for Bulgaria and Borisov has no right to make another wrong move if he wants to continue standing with his head held high on the political scene.

 In this sense, the '2026 elections are a matter of life and death' for GERB and Borisov.

 The danger today lies in the narrative that is already being spread in the public space - that the GERB and MRF candidate will be the "candidate of power", which will inevitably lead to negative consolidation. According to sociologists, GERB with their 650,000 voters and MRF with its 500,000 can count on approximately 1.2 million votes. But that is not enough to get elected as president.
 
 Borisov must find a middle ground where the GERB candidate will be recognized as their own, while also attracting voters outside of GERB. And on top of it all, he is a potential one-hundred percent winner, supported by Peevski, who doesn't want to lose. The "everyone against GERB" formula from the second round, which we have seen in previous years, is a reality for this coming autumn as well. That is why the person Borisov sees as the future President of Bulgaria is so important.

 Radev is warming up by the track.

 Rumen Radev made it clear that he will be a factor in these elections. By standing behind a possible left-wing candidate, an alternative to GERB and MRF, he will shape the new political positioning. In Bulgaria, there are over two million voters who do not vote as a protest against the entire political class. If one million of them are deceived by Radev to support Candidate X - there you have the runoff.

 And if the left-wing candidate wins - it will be Radev's third victory over Borisov! Populism, with which Radev jumps against the executive power, will be his main weapon in the vote. And on this terrain, the most people can be misled.

 In the presidential institution, they have long been preparing for the leap into party politics. It is more than clear that the left (not nationalist) candidate will be nominated by an Initiative Committee, which will have its representatives in all areas and regions of the country. They will become the core of Radev's future party. Regardless of whether Radev's candidate succeeds or not, the presidential elections will be the launch pad from which the presidential party will start. After leaving "Dondoukov" 2, Radev will calmly lead it, there will be time for him to structure it, to find the future participants in the local, European and upcoming parliamentary elections (if this cabinet completes its mandate). Of course, in this case, the candidate's personality is important. But unlike Borisov, Radev will not lose if the leftist candidate does not win. Quite the opposite.  A loss for BSP-OL in October 2026 will push even more leftist voters away from "Positano" 20 and they will see Radev as the new messiah.

 CC-DB WILL LOST FROM SIDES

 CC-DB has no chance of success in the presidential elections, no matter who they deceive to run. Neither Kostov, nor Kiril, Asen, Denkov, and Lena, even taken together, can generate a right-wing wave that would send their person to "Dondoukov" 2. Their role is unenviable - they will be bystanders, watching the titanic battle between Radev and Borisov, along with Peevski. The differences between the coalition partners will escalate during the nomination of a common candidate, as each party will want to be represented without considering the possibility of a hypothetical victory.

 A pro-Russian candidacy, such as the one that would be put forward by "Revival", will take away voters from the left-wing presidential candidate. Despite actively exploiting existing fears in Bulgarian society, support for "Revival" is not growing. In this segment, there is strong competition from GERB and "VMRO", which creates more aggression than dialogue and partnership.

 "In any case, the votes of the nationalists in the second round can tilt the scales in a certain direction. This, in turn, will put CC-DB in front of a decisive choice that could fall into the category of 'voting with disgust' as stated by Ivan Kostov.

 What will happen in the fall, remains to be seen. One thing is clear - Bulgaria is facing a serious transformation of power. And this inevitably will be accompanied by many shocks and opposition at all levels."