In the past week, one main theme has been passing through television studios like a red thread - Peevski will end Borisov just like he did with Dogan.
"Peevski will devour GERB in the same way he devoured MRF," announced Kiril Petkov. "Peevski is the key figure, Borisov is under pressure and will end up like Dogan," stated Kornelia Ninova. "Delyan Peevski can 'devour' Boyko Borisov," joined in Kostadin Kostadinov. We must also add commentators who are fueling the topic of "weak Borisov, who will be swallowed by powerful Peevski," who is moving forward and crushing everything in his path. Even Volen Siderov declared that Peevski is on his way to creating a new GERB. I respect Volen, but I am surprised that he would make such a politically incompetent statement.
Looking from the side, we have a very dynamic picture, unknown to us until now - at the door of Peevski there is a line of mayors and structures from all over the country, who want to seal their handshake with the leader of NEW BEGINNING in history. Peevski's rise is unstoppable and there are no prospects of stopping it. Systematically and organizationally, Peevski is gaining roots in local government, which is the backbone of every party. The strength of GERB so far has been based on its deep roots at the municipal level. This is what Borisov did 15 years ago and this is what keeps his party's backbone upright at the moment. Peevski is now walking the same path - with consistency and dedication, with the experience he has gained over the years in MRF, taking into account his mistakes and with an energy that others on the field do not seem to possess.
On the field we can see the outlines of two strong parties GERB and MRF-NEW BEGINNING, which, if they enter into synchronization, will form a stable power configuration. And it threatens all other players on the field. That's why a campaign is being launched, probably orchestrated, to drive a wedge between Borisov and Peevski and to stand GERB against MRF-NEW BEGINNING. And because Borisov is an emotional person - it is easiest and most effective to hit his ego: Peevski will take your party, just as he did with Dogan.
However, in this coordinated attack several factors are not taken into account.
PEEVSKI CANNOT ENTER THE GOVERNMENT WITHOUT BORISOV
Firstly, it is clear that Peevski is striving for executive power and is preparing to bring his party to second place, which will secure a red carpet in front of "Dondukovo" 1. However, Peevski cannot enter the government without Borisov and GERB. This is a phenomenon because he has carefully studied the moves, forces and possibilities. From this point of view, a conflict between Borisov and Peevski is unlikely to happen.
And I say this categorically, knowing both of them. There may be clashes between them on different issues, they may have differences on various topics, they may take different positions, but GENERALLY there is no way for a fire to ignite between Borisov and Peevski, similar to the one that erupted in Dogan's shed.
Because the prize here is power. Their shared power.
And in the name of compromise, Peevski will be the one. He cannot afford to have his path towards Borisov blown up, he cannot allow GERB to become an enemy of the NEW BEGINNING, as this would make the realization of his big goal – participation in the government as an equal partner – impossible.
Peevski does not benefit from a weakened GERB. Quite the contrary. The more GERB wins in the upcoming elections, the more Peevski gains. In this sense, there is no reasonable explanation for the thesis that Peevski wants to destroy GERB. It is simply absurd! Peevski has just come out of one war, he must be crazy to enter into another one.
Furthermore, both parties are facing a major challenge – the presidential elections. In the right wing, this topic has been discussed clearly and in a timely manner.
The new president will be a function of the strong GERB and the strong NEW BEGINNING. Do Borisov and Peevski not realize that they are once again giving this institution away to other factors? And this will have consequences for both GERB and NEW BEGINNING.
RADEV - MAIN OPPONENT
SECONDLY, at the moment both Borisov and Peevski have one main opponent - Radev. If the two of them quarrel, they will make the biggest gift to Radev, freeing the way for him to govern the state. It is more than certain that enmity between Borisov and Radev will bring Radev to power. Today, from the Shepherds' Conference, the President once again hinted at a "new political alternative" that will "come from the people".
For years, Radev has kept the fire burning, waiting for his political project, trying to be a critical counterweight to every government. However, in the past few months, the president has clearly and categorically focused against Borisov and Peevski, packaging them together as one entity.
And because the debate "for" and "against" the euro has opened a new, heavy dividing line in society, which creates fertile ground for anti-government sentiments, Radev deliberately fuels populist sentiments. He skillfully uses people's fears, pulls the strings of negative public expectations after the adoption of the euro, and digs deep. "There is a powerful brainwashing of the average Bulgarian, illusory fears are spread, lies are shamelessly and unscrupulously told," wrote Ognyan Minchev. Radev does not dispute the financial and business institutions that are "for" the euro, Radev hits the two strong political figures who support the euro - if he deals with them, the pyramid in the country collapses and he comes in as the Savior. And "dealing" with them happens by sowing doubt in the trust between them. It's that simple and that transparent! If Radev takes power - the picture is clear. His thirst for power is well known, revengefulness - also, changing the course of the country - certain.
I will argue with Parvan Simeonov again. Today he developed the thesis: "Peevski defeated in the MRF and this is a natural process. He has the ambition to increase his electorate and if he continues to be so energetic, he will soon reach 500,000 voters or almost equal the number of voters of GERB, which means competing with Borisov. "And this means that a counterculture will emerge, where Rumen Radev can make his statement". He is right, but I will make an addition - the comparison between Peevski and Borisov will not be in competition between the two, but in the form of partnership, in order to attract a larger electorate. This is how experienced politicians should think. Not to divide, but to attract. And Borisov and Peevski have realized this. They have nothing to divide.";
THE ONLY DANGER - AN INTERNAL BREACH
THIRD, attempts to drive a wedge between Borisov and Peevski from the outside will be unsuccessful. The only danger is an internal breach.
It is known that there are influential figures in GERB who are in conflict with Peevski. There are representatives of the government who do not approve of his interference in the actions of some GERB members in certain places. This is where the noise in the system comes from, which reflects on Borisov and his moods.
Just like how for six months Ramadan Atalay and his group insistently whispered in Dogan's ear "Peevski will take your party" and made him jump against him, there are also voices in GERB who sing to Borisov "Peevski will take our party". Instead of focusing on strengthening structures and taking care of mayors, as Peevski does, those in Borisov's inner circle whisper such nonsense to him. And the reasonable question here is: If you are strong, how will Peevski finish you off? Or do you work like Peevski, so he won't finish you off? And there is no explanation why GERB is developing the theory - let's make Peevski an enemy. Why? Who supports the government?
GERB have a wonderful opportunity to increase their influence now with the mechanisms of executive power. Borisov has his political influence abroad, his leadership is not questioned by anyone. Peevski has focused on domestic policy. All of this should be harnessed towards one goal - the state's institutions to work in the public interest and this to lead to real results for the people.
If they don't, Radev is waiting for them.
The government's campaign to clarify the true consequences of adopting the euro, which is significantly delayed and Radev is using this fact, needs to gain an advantage quickly.