70081 | 5 Nov. 2024 | 16:16

cc-DB is a kind of Balkan, Bulgarian equivalent, ridiculous - because it is shallow, to the American Democratic Party

 How do you evaluate the behavior of the first party after the parliamentary elections - GERB, is it adequate to the political situation in the country or not, Mr. Vatsev?

 - The behavior of GERB's leadership is adequate, the problem is that everything in Bulgaria's political system today is perpendicular to itself. Borisov is trying to be adequate in a situation where it is not accepted to be so. The Bulgarian political system is of non-Euclidean type, it is in a very serious crisis. Figuratively speaking, Borisov is trying to pass through a locked door. At the same time, all his survival instincts are working well and what is even more serious is that the problems are not so much in him, but in the overall political status of the GERB party state. GERB is the equivalent of, for example, "United Russia" in Russia - it is the state as a party - it is the state administration plus families, cousins and in-laws, friends, plus fellow villagers who are "one of us". This is the state administration, seen as a client structure. GERB is the party of the Bulgarian big clientele. And it is confused. There is simply no clarity on the main questions of Bulgarian cultural and political life. Unnecessary, meaningless, but very obstructive complexities in relations with other political parties. They could be fixed if they managed to stabilize their relationships with CC-DB.

 - When you talk about a locked door, are you referring to CC-DB Party's attitude?

 - Not only. Borisov is welcomed by the American side, but he is not their favorite. Borisov doesn't like taking risks - he is tired, he is old, many things have happened to him, most of which were unpleasant. The situation is a locked door. The locked door is the lack of sympathy towards Borisov personally in the American State Department. He is, on one hand, their man, because he is a client. He became a personal client, and such people never end up on the "Magnitsky" list.

 - Do you mean the deal with the planes?

 - Yes, of course. Whoever becomes a client of the American defense industry cannot end up on the "Magnitsky" list. So, if Borisov is worried about ending up on the "Magnitsky" list, he shouldn't be - he won't end up on the "Magnitsky" list. But it is a burden for him that he is not a favorite of Washington, others are the favorites of Washington, I mean the CC-DB. And Borisov is used to being a favorite. When the German period of Borisov expires - let's not forget that the GERB phenomenon appeared with huge German support: German capital, German expertise, German patting on the back. There is no more Angela Merkel, the German CDU is no longer leading in Germany. The political climate in Germany has changed and GERB was originally a pro-German party. For Borisov, it is intolerable not to be a favorite for someone in an international sense and his life becomes more and more difficult. Of course, he still has rational moves, he has a way to justify his unwillingness to form a government with the actions of other political forces in Bulgaria. He is not in a catastrophe, but his path becomes steeper and more slippery. Bulgaria's largest clientelistic party is confused in and of itself because the times are confusing. Bulgaria has forgotten when it was rule by non-clientelist means.

 - Is the behavior of the second political force adequate? They want to lead the processes, but the facts stubbornly show something different - their votes are only half of GERB's.

 - We must understand them well. For CC, their electoral balance doesn't matter, because they are the American party of Bulgaria. If you want, write it in all capital letters, so it is known more precisely. CC-DB is a Balkan, Bulgarian analogue, ridiculous - because it is shallow, like the American Democratic Party. They combine - just like in the Democratic Party, from left liberals to socialists and from right liberals to fascists. And for them, the electoral results don't matter at all. What matters to them is that America is behind us and whatever happens, ours will be. "They are the "terrible child" of Bulgarian politics and this "child" is allowed everything. Their electoral result is necessary only for them to be present in parliament.

 -Do you mean they will behave like this with just 4%?

- Exactly! They will continue to behave like this, firstly because they cannot do otherwise - no one has learned to follow parliamentary syntax there. All the complex steps of the parliamentary mechanism are not important to them, what matters is that the American ambassador supports us.

 - But in the USA at the moment there are elections going on, will they have an impact on the situation here?

 - At a national level, the forces between the Democrats and Republicans are evenly matched. If CC-DB loses the support of the Democratic Party in the United States, they are literally nobody. They will even stop laughing at them and they will disappear. I remember well how the UDF was developing successfully and quickly, while in Washington the power was in the hands of the Democrats. At one point it passed into the hands of the Republicans and the UDF experienced a deep internal crisis from which it could not recover. This is the fate of all parties made by analogy. This similar problem can also be seen in the fate of GERB. They were not made as "United Russia", but are a clientelistic party. The change of hegemon in a global sense can confuse them a lot. In other words, the fate of CC-DB is decided in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, North Carolina, and other so-called swing states.


 - Allow me to object - no matter what problems the UDF had 20 years ago, when the US took the turn you are talking about, the right-wing did not lose its influence in society. Moreover, there was a disproportionately larger weight than the electoral weight it had. These forces "drove the train," so to speak. So why should the PP-DB worry about something?

 - The CC-DB should be worried because they are an exact copy of the structure of the American Democratic Party and if it loses, our (party) will lose the blessing of the new American ambassador. As for UDF, the work is that the political culture of UDF was imposed primarily through Moscow - they first established themselves, and then began to court the American Democratic Party. But the idea of UDF was born, so to speak, on the border between Bulgaria and Russia. But that's a topic for another conversation.

 - When the guard changes at the White House, will GERB become a favorite in Bulgaria?

 - There are no guarantees.

 - So what will change in our domestic political situation? In some other elections we will again have 25% for GERB, as we have had in the last seven elections. Against them, there will be an uncompromising force again, which will not want to negotiate with them from the positions that they do not want today.

 - In the event of a Trump victory, CC-DB will not have the resources to be an uncompromising opposition to GERB, they are very sensitive to the Atlantic winds. I am not ready to answer who will be the darling of Washington if Trump is president. But it will not be GERB, because in Washington they view GERB as a pro-German European construct. Of course, they can change their position, they can demand a change of leader of GERB, in order to protect them in the future geopolitically and culturally-politically.

 Clear - what will happen in Washington and what will be its projection for us from today on appears as a uncertain future event. But is the leader of DPS-New Beginning right to defend the right of his 300,000 voters not to be put in a sanitary cordon?

 - Undoubtedly, he is right. Every political leader, who has convincingly presented themselves in elections, not only has the right, but also the obligation to fight for the interests of those who have invested their trust in them. There is no doubt that Peevski not only has the right, but also the duty to take care of the welfare and the correct position of his party. This sounds like an imperative not only for Peevski, but also for every other political leader at the moment - it applies to Dogan, Borisov, and so on. No one can threaten anyone with isolation and sanitary cordons, if we understand democracy as meaningful human interaction.

 The real issue around Peevski and Dogan is elsewhere, it has a different meaning, different roots. There is no dispute between the two personalities Dogan and Peevski, there is no dispute even between two parties, which are a result of the split of one whole. Here we are talking about a conflict between long-term global visions for the future of Bulgarian political life.

 According to one view, this is the old concept of Bulgarian politics, which is that there are two parties in Bulgaria - the big blue one, which is the favorite of history, and the big red one, which plays the role of a social complainer, along with a few others that exist due to collusion. And finally, there is the MRF, which is the small but extremely influential party that distributes the directions of development, distributes portions and determines which way things will move. This is Dogan's concept of the inevitable role of the MRF in Bulgarian political life.

 Peevski does not recognize this doctrine, he has a different doctrine - MRF as the second political force. But a political force that can be second can also be first, due to the spinning of the political roulette wheel. Peevski does not recognize Dogan's doctrine that MRFis the language of the scales, which determines the direction of things. These are two completely different political horizons for the development of Bulgarian political life.

 - Will there be a development of the conflict between Peevski and Dogan?

 - Yes, there will be in the coming years. But I do not accept it being called a conflict between two individuals, regardless of how strong they are. This is a clash of doctrinal foundations of Bulgarian politics. The old perestroika doctrine - one large correct party, one large incorrect party, and one small one that determines which direction things will go, is no longer relevant. The model where different parties freely and anarchically determine their results through their resources is now on the agenda.

 - Does this mean a new rearrangement of the political scene in Bulgaria?

 Exactly, but before the complete new arrangement comes, the current realities must be seen. The political system of the Fifth Bulgarian state is in crisis and decline. The systemic parties are declining in their own ways - GERB in one way, BSP in another way, MRF in a different way. The systemic decline of the systemic parties is evident. The Fifth Bulgarian state as a political machine is fading away, and the current political system has no long-term future. It may survive until the new elites, who are in a starting position today, do not reach the levers of power. The old elite, which is distributed among the systemic parties in Bulgaria, is completely historically demoralized and fading away. We must expect a Sixth Bulgarian state, and it is not based on the Round Table. In order to reach the Sixth Bulgarian state as a political system, I fear that Bulgaria will go through an authoritarian syndrome. Through authoritarianism. Today's erudite liberal democracy, which is torn and tattered, will be replaced with an authoritarian regime. Not a terrorist one, but an authoritarian one. Dictatorships can differ. History knows many cases of successful dictatorships and unsuccessful dictatorships. The dictatorship of Juan Peron in Argentina was successful and that is why he is still loved there, forgiving him for being a dictator. The dictatorship of the Black Colonels in Greece in the 1970s was unsuccessful. They came to power with the help of the CIA and in my opinion the CIA brought them down when they realized that nothing positive would come from this initiative. On its way from the Fifth to the Sixth Bulgarian state, Bulgaria will have to go through an authoritarian spasm.

 - Who will be at the head of this authoritarian regime?

 - I am sure that the current authority cannot be seen in today's political elite. Borisov is not a dictator in any way; Hristo Ivanov, included in this formula, only provokes smiles; it is ridiculous to talk about Atanas Atanasov as a dictator.

 - And Rumen Radev?

 - That is a big and unclear question. From time to time, it seems to me that Radev sees his future in a successful, large and very authoritative party. It seems to me that Radev himself is not ready to be a dictator or an authoritarian leader. He is developing, but for now he is not entering the formula of an authoritative Bulgarian political leader who holds others in a suppressed position and maintains direct connections with society. The future authoritarian leader must have his own network for contacts with the people. The authoritarian leader communicates directly with the people without political intermediaries, and I'm not sure that the Bulgarian president, as he is today, can achieve this. But on the other hand, a person continues to develop as long as he is alive.

 - Am I understanding correctly that, according to your analysis, we will continue to have elections with almost the same result until this authoritative figure emerges?

 - Yes, you understood me correctly. Bulgaria awaits another one or two elections. The next one will be around Easter, and the other one - in late autumn next year. But until then, several other variables need to be taken into account in the equation. We need to see how the Ukrainian conflict will evolve. For now, Russia is winning, but it is only winning in military-technical terms. The issue is that a military-technical victory over the enemy can be turned into a political victory in several different ways. We also need to look at the Middle Eastern conflict, which these days threatens to escalate on a large scale. I am referring to the fact that in Tehran, they have decided to respond to Tel Aviv seriously with unexpected military force this time. This is a direct threat of an explosion in the Middle East. And this happens, mind you, at a time when America is not ready to react adequately, as it is preoccupied with its own internal tasks.

 If we return to our domestic political life, which according to the formula of Grandpa Blagoev is 90% dependent on foreign policy - until the big pieces of the geopolitical puzzle are put in place, there will be no order in our country?

 - Yes, that's right. I would even add – the Bulgarian state machine today is in a semi-disassembled state. Someone persistently lies that 70% of Bulgarian society insists on a stable full-scale government. This is not true. This thesis is difficult to reconcile with the other sociological truth - that 70% of Bulgarians do not participate in political life. The semi-disassembled state of the Bulgarian political machine turned out to be surprisingly convenient for the current Bulgarian political elite. This is Bai Ganyo's way of avoiding major commitments - please, leave us alone, we don't have a government. It's becoming more convenient for Bulgarian political elites to not take on any commitments. On one hand, we are Atlantic through and through, no one is more Atlantic than us, but on the other hand - if you please, leave us alone, we're busy with other things. This is the reluctance of the Bulgarian elite as a whole to participate with certain commitments in the Ukrainian conflict.

 - And how do you view the possibility of contesting the elections - completely cancelled, partially cancelled, recounting the ballots?

 - Cancellation in the sense of a large-scale recount is possible, but I think it will only result in the loss of more time. However, the current Bulgarian political elite gains when it loses time. Speaking on their behalf, they have nowhere to rush. "So a massive vote recount is once again completely possible in terms of the great goal of letting time pass and leaving us in peace. I don't believe that one dismissal can fundamentally change the Bulgarian political landscape. It will be changed by other larger dependencies. The "big puzzle pieces" will be rearranged not in Bulgaria, but in Washington, Moscow, and Tel Aviv. And in Tehran, possibly.

 - You forgot Brussels.

 - Brussels is already worthy of being forgotten. The European Union is gradually sinking. The European Union is in a post-historical crisis and the only thing they can do is search for their new formula, because the old one is worn out. European liberalism is in crisis, and nothing else can do the job in Europe at this stage." "Bulgaria is a geopolitical country, and the main focus of Bulgarian politics is geopolitical - something that certain politicians stubbornly refuse to understand. Moreover, Bulgaria is the geopolitical heart of the Balkans, which makes me doubt that Russia will ever try to have a presence in the region in some way."