113019 | 4 Sept. 2025 | 20:07
According to the constitution, the President was given all sorts of powers to interfere, but none of these powers can explain their leading function in Bulgarian society, says geopolitical analyst and historian Valentin Vatsev.
Here are the main points from Valentin Vatsyev's interview for Epicenter.bg:
Neither the parade in Beijing, nor the SCO forum are significant events. Western political centers are confused because America is losing its hegemony.
Western leaders did not attend the parade in Beijing because Trump did not attend. The situation is not yet ripe for Trump, Xi Jinping, and Putin - and Narendra Modi, of course - to say, "We are the world, we are running the world!".
In the USA, there is a very obvious conflict about the topic of who pushed Russia into the embrace of China and who is now using the same method to decrease tension between India and China.
The latest in the EU is the alliance between the military-industrial complex and the ultra-bureaucracy in Brussels. The EU is in a crisis of its geopolitical subjectivity - they have not resolved fundamental problems of their development and existence. The heaviest crisis in the EU is ideological. And that is why it can easily be overlooked when discussing global processes.
The Bulgarian political class is completely demoralized and disoriented. They don't know what to do and what to expect, and so they live from day to day. The longest horizon of their planning is two to three months. Bulgaria has never before been in such a historical impasse. "Deadend" is today's name for the Bulgarian political elite.
It doesn't matter if Rosen Zhelyazkov was informed about Zafirov's visit to China. The stagnation in the Bulgarian administrative mechanisms has gone so far that they can even be unaware of what their colleagues are doing. This is a lack of interest, a lack of assessment of the event's significance.
I expect the Bulgarian Socialist Party to mark this as a very important moment and a great success, and for government representatives to eventually join in. Everyone will try to show themselves as winners from this purely partisan visit, which leads to no real commitments.
Someone is very carefully building the image of Bulgaria as a country of dark Balkan subjects who love to engage in terrorism - barely missing killing the Pope and now barely missing killing our own Ursula von der Leyen.
The Russian idea is to create a new Ukraine, which is neutral and non-nuclear - a small, white, fluffy Ukraine in the model of Austria. But there is another problem, which is not at all small - for Western Ukraine.
There is something ticking in the EU and these forming processes will develop in Brussels. And this expectation lives in the Kremlin - that it will not always be what it is today in the European Union.
We are witnessing the last tremors of today's Bulgarian political status quo. The status quo will be changed next year with reforms brought by the new party that everyone is talking about today - the president's party (for which I personally have no expectations). Secondly, the status quo in our country will be changed with the new stage of the relations between GERB and CC-DB. Thirdly, the leadership of BSP is historically unpromising - they are on the verge of losing representation in parliament. In their new non-parliamentary life, BSP will transition to a circular level, which may be for the better.
The three main Bulgarian parties are in a historical crisis. BSP's crisis - caused by lack of principles and ideas and by this very interesting alliance between BSP and GERB - BSP is participating in the structures of power, which is detrimental for the party in the long term. Systemic crisis experienced by MRF - at one point there were two MRF parties, now there is only one again, but it is a party with an undefined political profile. We do not know if the MRF of Delyan Peevski is a left or right political party. A systemic crisis is also observed in GERB. GERB is a party with German-know how, which is no longer coming from Berlin. In my opinion, Borisov is worried and confused about the fact that Germany does not know what will happen next year. GERB cannot go on without German blessing and guidance.
- What is happening around the world and in our country, Mr. Vatsev?
- In my opinion, nothing is happening.
- How can you say nothing is happening? Xi Jinping hosts a grand parade - on both sides of him are Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un, and somewhere behind them is Bulgarian Deputy Prime Minister and leader of BSP Atanas Zafirov, which has caused a political storm in our country. Previously, there was a forum of the SCO, where dozens of world leaders attended, and earlier Putin met with US President Donald Trump in Alaska.
- I am very troubled to give a different opinion of what happened since I don't see an event. But this meeting, the meetings in China and the military parade with the displayed weapons are completely confusing western media. Western political leaders are not confused by China, they are confused for a different reason - because America is losing its hegemony, but this cannot be news because it started one or two years ago. I see how the events in China are causing confusion in the media.
I can predict how Zafirov's visit to China will be interpreted as a major victory for the Bulgarian government, since nothing else is convenient to say.
- Since according to you these events are not significant, what is a significant event?
- At the moment, I am not observing any significant events. Significant events can occur on both battlefields where a confrontation is currently raging. If the Russian forces are able to continue their series of military victories on the battlefield and if this series turns into a political fact. Another significant event could be a second series of the Iranian-Israeli conflict. I expect it around New Year, not now. But these are the two areas where significant events can be expected. There are no significant events anywhere else in the world.
- How do we interpret the fact that representatives from the West did not attend the parade in Beijing (excluding Tsar Zafir and Fitzo), considering that it commemorates the end of World War II? Russia and China are two of the victorious countries, but the others were missing. And President Trump was invited.
- They were going to attend, in fact, but they preferred not to because Trump did not go. After Trump decided that it would be better not to go, there was no longer a reason for the Western countries to go there. The driving force was the will of the American President. He decided it would be better not to go. We have not yet reached a situation where Trump, Xi Jinping, and Putin – and Narendra Modi, of course – can say, “We are the world, we govern the world!”.
- Indian Prime Minister Modi attended the SCO Forum in Tianjin, but did not go to Beijing. What does this signify?
- Modi is in a delicate position - the painful border issues between China and India have not yet been resolved.
- Has China put forward a request for a new world order and its hegemony in this new world order with the demonstration of military power that we saw?
- Books have been written about China's move towards global hegemony, this has been known for a long time and this is the reason why there is no peace in the White House and why they are trying to solve a very difficult question - about the Chinese-Russian relations seen in the light of American global interests. On the other hand, in Beijing they categorically refuse to talk about anything more than "shared destiny of peoples", which for now is just propaganda. Beijing does not agree to discuss China's move towards a global position.
- Perhaps because this automatically means confrontation with Russia, where they have "infinite friendship" not only with the USA, where relations are already tense against the background of trade wars? Years ago, Kissinger formulated the triangle Soviet Union - USA - China - if two of the countries are together, the third weakens, and he achieved a major breakthrough with China.
- Yes, Kissinger is no longer here, but this triangle continues to be a source of concern and uncertainty in global politics. The USA are particularly sensitive on this issue, they have a very obvious conflict over who pushed Russia into the arms of China and who is now doing the same to reduce tension between India and China. And that's why in China they prefer not to talk about Chinese global hegemony at this stage. If China now makes a claim for such hegemony, it means there will be problems in its future relations with the United States.
- Where is the European Union in all of this? Because Bulgaria is a member of the European Union and wherever the European Union is, we are there too.
- This is probably the motto that determines the behavior of Bulgarian ruling circles - where Ursula is, there we are. Otherwise - the position of the EU is hardly visible. The EU is in a deep crisis of its geopolitical subjectivity. The troubling times for the EU began during the time of Maastricht and now they are evident from all sides. The newest development in the EU is the union of the military-industrial complex with the ultra-bureaucracy in Brussels. The EU is in a crisis of its geopolitical subjectivity - they have not solved the fundamental problems of their own development and existence. The heaviest crisis for the EU is ideological. And that is why it can easily be missed when talking about global processes.
For us, the problem is that the Bulgarian political class is completely demoralized and disoriented. They do not know what to do and what to expect, so they live day by day. Their longest planning horizon is two to three months. Never before has Bulgaria been in such a historical impasse. Impasse is the current name for the Bulgarian political elite.
- Part of this political elite is cheering for Zafirov's visit to China. Who handled the situation the best - as an inside position for us, how do you view the behavior of the Bulgarian Socialist Party - they sent a delegation and also acted quite timidly - if they consider this an achievement, why don't they say so? On the other hand, what are the relationships like within the government when they don't inform each other about their actions - the Prime Minister said - "I didn't know Zafirov was in China, I knew he was on vacation".
- It doesn't matter if Rosen Zhelyazkov was informed or not. The lack of timeliness in Bulgarian management mechanisms has reached the point where they may not even know what the other is doing. This is a lack of interest, a lack of assessment of the importance of the event. At this stage, no one has reacted to the event. I expect that the Bulgarian Socialist Party will mark this as a very important moment and a great success, and eventually the government spokespersons will also join in. Everyone will try to present themselves as winners from this purely partisan visit, which does not lead to any commitments.
- Since it was a purely partisan visit, what was the problem with having the delegation led by, for example, Kalyan Pargov, who is not a member of the government, but is the deputy chairman of the party and responsible for relations with the Far East? The burden on the delegation would have been the same, but there would be no political tension created.
- What you are saying sounds logical. But you have to understand the psychology of the ruling party of the Bulgarian Socialist Party. It was reasonable for this delegation to be led by the Deputy Chairman, who is responsible for ideology and relations with the eastern direction - Kaloyan Pargov. This was not based on some Mahlen logic - China is a great power and no one else can lead a delegation to a great power except the Chairman of BSP. The question is whether the members of this delegation will take on any commitments. I don't expect such events. And the festivity will be over in three days.
- Once again, the most reactive of the political leaders turned out to be Borisov, who said - I don't know if there is a ban on visits to China and Christine Lagarde was there. And he added - in GERB, I do what I say. And in this way, he seemed to answer all the questions that could be asked.
- Borisov spoke completely rationally and sensibly. If we judge his position through the filter of common sense, it is that nothing significant has happened, nothing for anyone to pull their hair out over. Perhaps this visit will lead to some change in the power relations within the Bulgarian Socialist Party, but I expect this change even without any Chinese visits. The problem is that the leadership structure of the BSP is written on the knee, it is not thought out for the distant future or deep principles. The last congress of the BSP was very situational.
- And confrontational!
- It is normal for it to be confrontational, most congresses of the BSP are like that. But at the last congress, things were done from this year until the next. But this applies to our entire political class - it has a low horizon of political planning. So - nothing has happened from Zafov's visit to China.
- What does Ursula von der Leyen's visit for a few hours mean for us?
- This means that Ursula is seriously concerned about the rumors in Brussels that she is the subject of a carefully conducted investigation regarding the destruction of some documents that would have been very useful to the investigation. It concerns the highly suspicious affair of the purchased Covid vaccines. So Ursula von der Leyen had to urgently take action to divert attention. The second reason is that the EU has indeed lost its geopolitical subjectivity and in such circumstances it is only natural for the central leadership to scatter upwards - downwards. What better occasion than this to organize a state visit campaign, given that Bulgaria and other frontline countries are undergoing readiness checks. And these things don't go by without some celebratory moments.
- Do you mean the issue with her plane?
- Yes, Putin has stopped the GPS signal. He is the personified historical evil, he cannot help but reach his dirty hairy hands towards our Ursula von der Leyen.
- How do you explain the fact that in Brussels they continue to claim there was a problem, while our authorities stubbornly deny it?
- There are, however, propaganda bosses who claim that once again the crime of the century was about to happen over Bulgarian land. There are influential Bulgarian politicians who say exactly that. According to me, there is an attempt here to use the sensational reaction of the scandal, when a fake Bulgarian almost killed the Pope. Someone carefully builds an image of Bulgaria as a country of dark Balkan subjects, who love to engage in terrorism - almost killing the Pope, and now almost killing our Everything - Ursula von der Leyen. The mouthpiece and spokesperson for this old fashion was the liberal-democratic newspaper "Financial Times". They will continue to claim until the end that their source is in Bulgaria, which is probably not true. And this event will last exactly three days.
- The fact, however, is that the conflict in Ukraine continues and it is also being fought with radio electronic warfare, part of which is the jamming of GPS signals. Do you see an end to this conflict?
- The least significant goals of the Kremlin will be achieved at the end of the upcoming winter. It must then become clear that Russia is not fighting for a few pieces of land to add to its vast territory. The true goal of Russia is to resolve the issue of Ukraine as an anti-Russia. And the even more distant strategic goal of Russia, for which it will fight for at least two decades, is the new ambition of the current Russian elite (this is not Putin's idea) to reclaim the zones of control and influence in Eastern Europe and the Balkans.
- For now, Russia is losing on the first goal - even if it takes control of the entire territory on the left side of the Dnieper, Western Ukraine will hate it even more. They will arm themselves with even greater resentment. What does Russia gain from all of this?
- At this stage, Russia is winning on the military-technical side - due to the fact that it has more resources. But here we must remember that it is not so much Ukraine as the Unified West, NATO, and until recently the US that is the warring factor. The Russian idea is to create a new Ukraine, which is neutral and borderless - a small, white and fluffy Ukraine modeled after Austria. But there is another problem that is by no means small - for Western Ukraine. Stalin has only two major geopolitical mistakes and this is one of them - the annexation of Western Ukraine (which is Eastern Poland) to the Soviet Union. It was not necessary, but it became a source of decade-long battles - the NKVD fought there continuously. Now with Western Ukraine, there can only be one solution - significant areas of Western Ukraine should be returned to Poland and let them carry the burden of fighting against Bandera. In Poland they have historical experience with the Bandera supporters. Another part - from Transcarpathia, may return to Hungary, and a third - Bukovina, to Romania. This is the only solution to the problem with Western Ukraine.
- Can such a redefinition of borders jeopardize us as well?
- No, but it could increase the complexity of the process of geopolitical projection, which Bulgarian politicians are trying to deal with. The entire geopolitics of the Bulgarian government is "where Ursula is, there we are." Solving the issue of Western Ukraine goes hand in hand with resolving conflicts with Moldova, creating a new platform for relations with Romania, and Romania is where the largest American military base in the Balkans is being built.
- Is it possible for the European elite to change towards Russia, because this regulation of the conflict in Ukraine, which you are talking about, cannot be achieved without the consent of the European Union?
- It can happen without the consent of the EU, but the geopolitical culture requires this issue to be addressed in conversation with the EU. And I think it will happen next year, which is why the Kremlin refuses to accept the high-conflict style of conversation that Brussels maintains today. The problem is that at this stage, the EU is simply incapable of making agreements. There are figures like Merkel, who in addition to being a protégé of "Black Rock", is also the main German Russophobe. Which no one expected from her. There is Macron, who doesn't seem to know how to solve his current problems - the domestic issues of France are not passing through Macron's hands. In the EU, there is a process underway - the deepest and slowest process that sets the background and meaning of the historical situation, which is the European Union. It is a process in which the main non-Atlantic powers (they are not Atlantic powers, but continental) France and Germany are taking their own political and historical path. There is something ticking in the EU and these emerging processes in Brussels are expected to evolve. This is also the expectation in the Kremlin - that the European Union will not always be what it is today.
- Returning to our country, do you expect a high degree of intensity in the upcoming political season, considering that this is the year preceding the presidential elections?
- Yes, the new political season starts with high temperatures, but also with serious tension. The Bulgarian political elite is at the end of its historical significance. So not now, but even next year, there will be social and political changes. We are witnessing the last convulsions of today's Bulgarian political status quo. The status quo will be changed next year with changes that will be brought by the new party that everyone is talking about today - the party of the President (for which I personally have no expectations). Secondly, our status quo will change with the new stage of relations between GERB and CC-DB. Thirdly, the leadership of BSP is historically without prospects - they are on their way to being left without representation in parliament. In its new parliamentary life, the BSP will transition to a circular level, which could be for the better.
Note that the three main parties are in a historical crisis. BSP's crisis - caused by lack of principles and ideas, and by the very interesting alliance between BSP and GERB - BSP participates in the power structures, which is detrimental to the party in the long run. DPS also experienced a systemic crisis - at one point there were two DPS parties, now there is only one, but it is a party with an undefined political profile. We do not know if DPS under Delian Peevski is a left or right political party. Systemic crisis is also observed in GERB. GERB is a party with German know-how, which is no longer coming from Berlin. In my opinion, Borisov is worried and confused about the fact that Germany does not know what will happen next year. GERB cannot function without German blessings and guidance. GERB is a large clientelistic party that has reached the limits of its effectiveness and next year will have to undergo some profound changes for its own good. Next year, the Bulgarian political landscape will be altered and it will be altered very deeply.
- Will the political landscape be changed if the parties in power run with separate candidates for president, or will it be preserved if they run with a common candidate?
- I think it doesn't matter if they have a common candidate, that is a superficial issue. The problem with the Bulgarian presidency is largely artificially inflated. In Bulgaria, there are several things that are unnecessary, but are part of the classic political landscape. For example, Bulgaria has no need for an ombudsman - this institution sits like a cow's saddle. Bulgaria does not need a Constitutional Court, as the idea for a Constitutional Court was born in another problematic situation, in different times - it was created to solve the major real contradictions in the foundations of the then political system. Bulgaria also does not need deep problems in the presidency - the Bulgarian president is largely a ceremonial-decorative figure.
- And he can be elected by the parliament calmly.
- Of course. And that would have been more fair. Simply, everywhere in the world presidents are either elected by the whole nation and have legislative initiative, which the Bulgarian president does not have. Or they are elected by the parliament and then have no legislative initiative. At the moment, an artificial abscess is being generated. Bulgaria does not need such a president – I mean not the person, but in an institutional plan. It does not need a Constitutional Court – because this institution was originally conceived as a second privileged high chamber of parliament where the real representatives of real political forces gather and secretly decide on pressing issues. That time has passed.
- However, the current situation is defined by the current constitution and presidential elections are a litmus test for public sentiment or for any changes in them. That was the case in 1996, when Peter Stoyanov from UDF won and it became clear that BSP, despite having an absolute majority in parliament, had lost the trust of society. As it was in 2001, when it became clear that BSP, which many wrote off, continues to be a significant factor in Bulgarian politics.
- You touch on important moments from the real, not fictional, history of Bulgarian political life. For a long time, the real policy of BSP was not to accept power, but to return it into the hands of SDS or whatever other competitors are out there. The real policy of BSP was that the transition is to the right, that BSP should be in opposition and only individual representatives of BSP should be in the sphere of power. This was the idea of the Lukashenko-Lilov team of the former party BSP, that BSP should learn to live without power. "I will not forget during the first victorious elections, one of the newly elected leaders of BSP (Lukanov) cursing at BSP, saying, "May the party rot, we never learned how to lose!" For many long years - until the triple coalition and the premiership of Sergey Stanishev, BSP's policy was to not be in power. Simply put, there is a tip of the iceberg within BSP that benefits financially from being in opposition. This process became evident when BSP returned to office (on February 4th, 1997), attempting to glorify the participants in their return to power.
- Who will be the dominant political figure in Bulgaria, with the current political class nearing its end?
- Bulgaria as the fifth political state is dying. And the political figure - officially, with the consensus of all media outlets, is Delyan Peevski." Actually - there is no politicially dominant subject, as a hegemon in the Bulgarian politics. For a while, Boyko Borisov was a hegemon in the Bulgarian internal politics, but he missed the historical moment to position himself internationally in a new way. At this stage, neither his contacts with Erdogan, nor his contacts with Trump, nor his contacts with the European Union give him the potential to be a hegemon in Bulgarian politics. In reality, not formally, in Bulgaria there is no political hegemon as a subject that gathers the hopes and expectations of a significant part of Bulgarian society. On the contrary, 65% of Bulgarians do not vote - which means that the Fifth Bulgarian state is going and I hope it goes away peacefully.
- Does Radev not possess the qualities necessary for a hegemon?
- Radev has not been in a situation where conclusions could be drawn regarding whether he can or cannot be a hegemon. At this stage, Radev is a relatively inert and well-meaning Bulgarian official, who we have agreed is the highest state representative. But Radev's function does not primarily lie in public relations, but in the Bulgarian Constitution. The Bulgarian presidency at the constitutional level was envisioned as a robe or, if you will, pajamas for Petar Mladenov. In the meantime, Petar Mladenov became afraid and it turned out that this idea contradicted the overall idea of the Bulgarian restructuring, that "we should not be in power". And Jelyu Jelyev was selected with the blessing of the BSP Supreme Council. This is the truth about those times. In the Constitution it was emphasized that the Bulgarian President has no legislative, executive, or judicial functions. He was expected to act as a brake on the government if UDF (the ruling party) continues to ignore the implicit agreements between "Rakovski" 134 and "Positano" 20. In this case, the President's role was to act as a train brake - to pull the emergency brake and therefore the presidential institution was designed as a foxhole with 30 exits. He was given all kinds of powers to obstruct, but no power to explain his leading role in Bulgarian society.
- And now we have reached the situation where Radev is against any action of the government and it seems like he obstructs the Bulgarian state.
- I do not believe that Radev is a hindrance to the Bulgarian statehood, Radev hinders the much desired, but seemingly impossible consensus among the Bulgarian, simple, God, right-wing parties. When their common future is not outlined, then the president becomes the main culprit for everything. The President is not to blame for the lack of identification of today's Bulgarian right. The Bulgarian right is at the end of its historical existence and common sense.
- Did last night's protest show that?
- The technology of protests is already exhausted. It is normal when a political class is leaving, for there to be protests. But no protest will be significant or become a central political fact that will determine the future of Bulgarian political life. There will be protests, but they will not be of such a nature as to threaten the political status quo. Rather, the Bulgarian political class is dying, emitting indecent sounds and scents, which continues to effectively repel the Bulgarian electorate from political life in Bulgaria. When Borisov, and earlier Stanishev, were prime ministers, there was some hope in Bulgarian political life. Now there is no hope whatsoever. And this can be said scientifically by pointing out the fact that 65% of Bulgarian voters refuse to vote - and not because they are stupid and irresponsible, as some try to suggest, but because they are disgusted. And I fully understand this disgust.
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